Application of the HYSPLIT model for birch pollen modelling in Poland

Abstract

In this work, the HYSPLIT model was used to reproduce birch pollen concentrations in Poland for the years 2015 and 2016, where there was significant variation in terms of pollen concentrations and start/end dates of the pollen season. The analysis of pollen observations showed that the seasonal pollen integral (SPIn) was low in 2015 with a shorter season compared to 2016. In 2016, SPIn was unusually high. The HYSPLIT model simulation, with a one-hour temporal resolution, was conducted during the birch pollen season (from March to May) for 2015 and 2016. Meteorological data were obtained from the WRF model. The birch coverage map of the European Forest Institute was used. The emission, introduced to the model, covered Central Europe with a resolution of 0.3° × 0.3°. The results were compared to data from 11 observation stations in Poland. The measured birch pollen concentrations for 2015 were overestimated by HYSPLIT at 8 of the 11 stations (normalized mean bias/NMB from 0.13 to 2.53) and underestimated for three stations (NMB from − 0.44 to − 0.15). For 2016, the model highly underestimated the pollen concentrations, with NMB ranging from − 0.45 to − 0.93. In general, the results show that the model can resolve the main peaks of pollen concentrations, which is a step forward in the application of the HYSPLIT model for birch pollen forecasting over Poland. We suggest the application of methods that can reduce the bias of temperature such as meteorological data assimilation or bias correction, which could improve calculation of the start of emissions and consequently the start of the pollen season as well as pollen concentrations.