Implications of Rising Trade Tensions for FDI Projects

Q1 Social Sciences

Transnational Corporations Pub Date : 2021-08-31 DOI:10.18356/2076099x-28-2-6

Emily Blanchard, Amelia U. Santos‐Paulino, C. Trentini, Emanuel Milet

引用次数: 3

Abstract

This paper offers preliminary evidence of the extent to which global FDI patterns have responded to the sharp increase in trade barriers since 2018, focusing in particular on the impact of new United States tariffs imposed on imports from China. Using detailed project-level data on new greenfield FDI as well as complementary research, this paper tracks the differential changes in FDI across countries and industries most affected by the trade tensions. There is some evidence of diversion to South-East Asia in specific industries, confirming findings of other research, but the aggregate effect on investment in China is limited and the overall effect on investment in South-East Asia is actually negative. A possible explanation lies in the importance of global value chain linkages as key determinants of firms’ investment decisions.

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贸易紧张局势加剧对外国直接投资项目的影响

本文提供了初步证据，证明自2018年以来，全球外国直接投资模式在多大程度上对贸易壁垒的急剧增加做出了反应，特别关注美国对从中国进口的商品征收新关税的影响。本文利用新绿地外国直接投资的详细项目级数据以及补充研究，追踪了受贸易紧张局势影响最大的国家和行业的外国直接投资差异变化。有一些证据表明，特定行业向东南亚转移，这证实了其他研究的结果，但对中国投资的总体影响有限，对东南亚投资的整体影响实际上是负面的。一种可能的解释是全球价值链联系作为企业投资决策的关键决定因素的重要性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transnational Corporations Social Sciences-Political Science and International Relations

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Transnational Corporations is a double-blind refereed journal published three times a year by UNCTAD. Its basic objective is to publish policy-oriented articles and research notes that provide insights into the economic, legal, social and cultural impacts of transnational corporations and foreign direct investment in an increasingly global economy and the policy implications that arise therefrom. It focuses especially on political and economic issues related to transnational corporations.