Modification of a design storm pattern for urban drainage systems considering the impact of climate change

Q3 Engineering

Engineering and Applied Science Research Pub Date : 2017-08-29 DOI:10.14456/EASR.2017.24

U. Weesakul, Winai Chaowiwat, Muhammad Rehan, S. Weesakul

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引用次数: 6

Abstract

Inundation of urban areas due to heavy rainfall more frequently occurs in many large cities all over the world. This is more evident now due to the impacts of climate change. The design rainfall storm pattern, an input used to design urban drainage systems, plays an important role for developing sufficient drainage capacity for big cities. There are few studies in Thailand focusing on the accuracy of the Chicago Design Storm, which has been widely used for decades, in estimation of the peak intensity of rainfall for drainage systems. This study aims to first examine the accuracy of the Chicago Design Storm using observed data. Second, the impacts of climate change on rainfall intensity and on the Chicago Design Storm were investigated. Bangkok and its vicinity were selected as study area. Rainfall storm data with 1-5 minutes records and 15 minute records were collected from the meteorological station at AIT over the past 21 years and from the rainfall station in Sukhumvit area of Bangkok for 15 years. The Gumbel distribution was used in a Frequency Analysis to establish IDF Curves. The CDS, Yen & Chow and Sifalda methods were used to synthesize a Design Storm Pattern. Comparison of results of these methods with the observed data revealed that the CDS has good agreement in shape, i.e. peak intensity and time to peak. The CDS is still recommended for use in practice. However, MAPE was also used to evaluate accuracy of the synthesized CDS in comparison with the observed data. It was found that the CDS should be modified to reduce its peak intensity. Moreover, the impact of climate was also investigated. The Equidistance Quantile-Matching Method was adopted to compute IDF curves to include the climate change impact. The Global Climate Model (GCM), and HasGEM2-ES with RCP4.5 were used to generate rainfall data for the next 25 years. The changes in IDF curves due to climate change were compared. With the changed IDF curves, the peak intensity of design storms increased by up to 25%. It is therefore recommended to account for the impacts of climate change on design storms.

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考虑气候变化影响的城市排水系统设计暴雨模式的修改

在世界上许多大城市，由于强降雨导致的城市地区淹没越来越频繁地发生。由于气候变化的影响，这一点现在更加明显。暴雨模式设计作为城市排水系统设计的一项输入，对于发展大城市足够的排水能力起着重要作用。在泰国，很少有研究关注芝加哥设计风暴(Chicago Design Storm)在估计排水系统降雨峰值强度方面的准确性，该方法已经被广泛使用了几十年。本研究旨在首先利用观测数据检验芝加哥设计风暴的准确性。其次，研究了气候变化对降雨强度和芝加哥设计风暴的影响。选取曼谷及其周边地区作为研究区域。在过去的21年里，AIT气象站和曼谷素坤逸地区的雨量站分别收集了1-5分钟和15分钟的暴雨数据。频率分析采用甘贝尔分布建立IDF曲线。采用CDS、Yen & Chow和Sifalda方法合成设计风暴模式。这些方法的结果与观测数据的比较表明，CDS在形状上，即峰强度和峰时间上有很好的一致性。在实践中仍然推荐使用CDS。然而，MAPE也被用来评价合成CDS与观测数据的准确性。研究发现，应对CDS进行改进，以降低其峰值强度。此外，还研究了气候的影响。采用等距分位数匹配法计算包含气候变化影响的IDF曲线。利用全球气候模式(GCM)和HasGEM2-ES (RCP4.5)生成了未来25年的降水数据。比较了气候变化对IDF曲线的影响。随着IDF曲线的变化，设计风暴的峰值强度增加了25%。因此，建议考虑气候变化对设计风暴的影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Engineering and Applied Science Research Engineering-Engineering (all)

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

11 weeks

期刊介绍： Publication of the journal started in 1974. Its original name was “KKU Engineering Journal”. English and Thai manuscripts were accepted. The journal was originally aimed at publishing research that was conducted and implemented in the northeast of Thailand. It is regarded a national journal and has been indexed in the Thai-journal Citation Index (TCI) database since 2004. The journal now accepts only English language manuscripts and became open-access in 2015 to attract more international readers. It was renamed Engineering and Applied Science Research in 2017. The editorial team agreed to publish more international papers, therefore, the new journal title is more appropriate. The journal focuses on research in the field of engineering that not only presents highly original ideas and advanced technology, but also are practical applications of appropriate technology.