Predicting banking crises based on credit, housing and capital booms

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2020-01-13 DOI:10.1111/infi.12367

Chung-Hua Shen, Yen-Hsien Lee, Hao Fang

引用次数: 2

Abstract

This study examines how excessive growth in credit, housing and international capital flows, referred to as credit, housing and capital booms, can serve as an early warning signal (EWS) for an impending banking crisis. We examine 56 sample countries that comprise 32 advanced countries and 24 emerging countries. We have two novel results. The first supports the “more booms, stronger warning signal” argument for predicting the onset and persistence of a crisis. The joint consideration of credit, housing and foreign capital booms can be an important EWS for a systemic banking crisis. Second, the lead times for the three booms are different. Capital booms occur 1 year ahead of a crisis, but credit and housing booms occur 2 years ahead.

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根据信贷、房地产和资本繁荣预测银行业危机

本研究探讨了信贷、住房和国际资本流动的过度增长，即信贷、住房和资本繁荣，如何作为即将到来的银行危机的预警信号(EWS)。我们研究了56个样本国家，其中包括32个发达国家和24个新兴国家。我们有两个新的结果。第一种观点支持“繁荣越多，预警信号越强”的观点，即预测危机的爆发和持续。对信贷、房地产和外资繁荣的共同考虑，可能是系统性银行危机的一个重要预警。其次，三次繁荣的前置时间不同。资本繁荣发生在危机前1年，但信贷和房地产繁荣发生在危机前2年。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.