A synthesis of drought prediction research over India

Abstract

A major section of India’s economy is directly linked with water-dependent food and energy systems. Skillful predictions of droughts play a pivotal role in sustainable water management and evading serious damages to agriculture production and economy of a region. Recent decades have witnessed valuable advances in scientific understanding and prediction of droughts in India. In this review, we synthesize major sources of drought predictability over different regions in India. We find that a few large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns and regional scale hydrometeorological variables are key to understanding and predicting drought occurrences. We also present a concise summary of major statistical and dynamical forecasting-based modelling efforts in drought predictions. Although major strides have been taken in drought prediction in the recent decades, important gaps remain in understanding the onset and spatio-temporal dynamics of droughts.

Further, many opportunities of improving the skill of drought prediction over India are envisaged, and many impending challenges are highlighted. The overall picture is that significant efforts and investments are critical for understanding and skillfully predicting droughts over India.