Do Trade and Poverty Cause Each Other? Evidence from BRICS

Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Pub Date : 2022-01-04 DOI:10.1177/09749101211067076

M. N. Rahman, Nida Rahman, A. Turay, Munir Hassan

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Any two variables that are observable have one or the other form of relationship. This is particularly a statistical relationship. But for a statistical relationship to be cause and effect, a theoretical relationship is important. The theoretical relationship can be quantified to search for the evidence of causality. The possible outcomes can be no causality, unidirectional causality, or bidirectional causality. The present study aims at searching for evidence from BRICS countries regarding trade causing poverty or vice versa. Applied econometrics approach is used in the study. Panel econometric techniques have been employed to identify presence/absence of causality between the variables. Apart from this, the study also uses equality of means to identify whether trade and poverty proxies are symmetrical or asymmetrical. The study finds no causal relationship between trade and poverty for BRICS countries except that poverty headcount at $3.2 per day causes trade balance. With respect to the impact on the GINI index, lowest 10 percent income share and poverty headcount ratios are integral to reduce the inequality in the BRICS countries.

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贸易和贫困是互为因果的吗？金砖国家的证据

任何两个可观测的变量都有一种或另一种形式的关系。这尤其是一种统计关系。但要使统计关系成为因果关系，理论关系是重要的。理论关系可以量化，以寻找因果关系的证据。可能的结果可以是无因果关系、单向因果关系或双向因果关系。本研究旨在从金砖国家寻找贸易导致贫困或贸易导致贫困的证据。本研究采用了应用计量经济学的方法。采用了面板计量经济学技术来确定变量之间是否存在因果关系。除此之外，该研究还使用平等手段来确定贸易和贫困指标是对称的还是不对称的。该研究发现，金砖国家的贸易和贫困之间没有因果关系，只是每天3.2美元的贫困人口会导致贸易平衡。就对基尼指数的影响而言，最低的10%收入份额和贫困人口比例是减少金砖国家不平等的不可或缺的因素。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies is a peer-reviewed journal. The aim of the journal is to provide an international platform for knowledge sharing, discussion and networking on the various aspects related to emerging market economies through publications of original research. It aims to make available basic reference material for policy-makers, business executives and researchers interested in issues of fundamental importance to the economic prospects and performance of emerging market economies. The topics for discussion are related to the following general categories: D. Microeconomics E. Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics F. International Economics G. Financial Economics H. Public Economics I. Health, Education, and Welfare J. Labor and Demographic Economics L. Industrial Organization O. Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth Q. Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics R. Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics Additionally, the journal would be most interested to publish topics related to Global Financial Crisis and the Impact on Emerging Market Economies Economic Development and Inclusive Growth Climate Change and Energy Infrastructure Development and Public Private Partnerships Capital Flows to and from Emerging Market Economies Regional Cooperation Trade and Investment and Development of National and Regional Financial Markets The Belt and Road Initiative.