Investigating the role of spatial spillovers as determinants of land conversion in urbanizing Canada

Abstract

Abstract Although the impacts of income, population growth, and other important determinants of land-use change have been widely studied, there is less understanding of how spatial spillovers matter. Utilizing a spatial econometric approach, we investigate the main determinants of natural landscape conversion, focusing on quantifying local and global spatial spillovers. The empirical investigation applies to the Edmonton Metropolitan Region and the Calgary Regional Partnership in Canada. Key results include: (1) determinants of land conversion have significant spillover effects; (2) income, population density, road density, natural land endowment and land suitability for agriculture are all found to have influences on natural land conversion both in the own and neighboring areas; and (3) local (i.e., within the immediate neighboring areas) and global (in the entire study region) spillovers are different in strength and direction. Our work provides useful information for understanding the spillover issues in land conservation, resource governance, and optimal conservation design.