Spatial and climatic analyses for predicting potential distribution of an invasive ant, Linepithema humile (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

Abstract

The Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) is an invasive species that rapidly enters into new areas, causing worldwide ecological concern. Early assessment of its potential habitat could indicate areas that we need to pay attention to in advance, to prevent its invasion; therefore, in this study we aimed to predict the potential spatial distribution of the Argentine ant and analyze the climatic characteristics of its occurrence sites. The CLIMEX model was used to predict the spatial distribution of this ant species, while the probability density function was employed to extract climatic preferences in places where their main habitats are located. High climatic suitability was predicted in the eastern United States, eastern South America, central Africa, eastern Australia, and a few regions in India and China, suggesting the high possibility of its invasion worldwide. The frequency of occurrence was highest at approximately 20°C monthly average maximum temperature, 8°C monthly average minimum temperature, and 10 mm monthly precipitation. In addition, the occurrence records of Argentine ants were mostly shown to be above sub-zero temperatures. We expect that these results can be used to identify new areas exposed to the risk of Argentine ant invasion and for further application to establish monitoring strategies in advance.