Thomas Machiels, R. Goodspeed, T. Compernolle, T. Coppens
{"title":"Creating Flexible Plans for an Uncertain Future: From Exploratory Scenarios to Adaptive Plans With Real Options","authors":"Thomas Machiels, R. Goodspeed, T. Compernolle, T. Coppens","doi":"10.1080/14649357.2023.2220701","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Scenario planning is increasingly used to manage uncertainty, but such planning often struggles to influence decision making and help communities navigate multiple futures. This article proposes a framework for planning practice that integrates scenario planning and real option theory to identify adaptation options that make plans or projects responsive to multiple futures. The framework is explained through a demonstration case, Plan Bay Area 2050 and Link21, based on document content analysis and expert interviews. The findings show that exploratory scenarios generate opportunities for real options reasoning and adaptive planning, by making uncertainties explicit when thinking about the future.","PeriodicalId":47693,"journal":{"name":"Planning Theory & Practice","volume":"24 1","pages":"366 - 385"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Planning Theory & Practice","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14649357.2023.2220701","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
Abstract Scenario planning is increasingly used to manage uncertainty, but such planning often struggles to influence decision making and help communities navigate multiple futures. This article proposes a framework for planning practice that integrates scenario planning and real option theory to identify adaptation options that make plans or projects responsive to multiple futures. The framework is explained through a demonstration case, Plan Bay Area 2050 and Link21, based on document content analysis and expert interviews. The findings show that exploratory scenarios generate opportunities for real options reasoning and adaptive planning, by making uncertainties explicit when thinking about the future.
期刊介绍:
Planning Theory & Practice provides an international focus for the development of theory and practice in spatial planning and a forum to promote the policy dimensions of space and place. Published four times a year in conjunction with the Royal Town Planning Institute, London, it publishes original articles and review papers from both academics and practitioners with the aim of encouraging more effective, two-way communication between theory and practice. The Editors invite robustly researched papers which raise issues at the leading edge of planning theory and practice, and welcome papers on controversial subjects. Contributors in the early stages of their academic careers are encouraged, as are rejoinders to items previously published.