Occupational separations: a new method for projecting workforce needs

Abstract

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Projections program publishes estimates of total occupational openings, an important career information metric. This metric has two components: projections of new jobs (growth) and projections of openings that arise from existing workers leaving the occupation (separations). BLS has adopted a new method for projecting separations with the 2016–26 projections. This article outlines the new separations method that more accurately captures the concept of occupational openings by independently measuring workers who leave the labor force and workers who transfer occupations. Because neither data source is large enough to generate reliable estimates for all detailed occupations, BLS uses historical data to estimate the impact of various characteristics on workers’ propensity to separate from an occupation using probit models. The results of the models are applied to current data on detailed occupations for estimating future separation rates.