Peramalan Produksi Kelapa Sawit dan Karet di Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan

Abstract

In Indonesia, the plantation sub-sector has an important role in increasing state revenue through the exports of its products, besides the mining and gas sector. The most widely produced plantation crops in Indonesia are oil palm and rubber and South Kalimantan is one of the top 10 provinces in Indonesia with oil palm plantations. This study aims to detect the correct forecasting model for data on oil palm crops and rubber production in South Kalimantan Province and to analyse the forecasting results for oil palm crops and rubber in South Kalimantan Province using the double exponential smoothing method.  This research was conducted for 8 months (March 2022 to December 2022), using observational data from 2001 to 2021. Double Exponential Smoothing Holt was used in this study by looking at the error value obtained with the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). For palm oil production, the parameters α=0.8 and β=0.6 were the best parameters with a MAPE value of 8.05% and resulted in the forecasting of oil palm crops production in 2022 not increasing, in 2023 and 2024 experiencing an increase of 1%. As for forecasting rubber production, the parameters α=0.9 and β=0.9 are the best parameters with a MAPE value of 5.45% and forecasting rubber production in 2022 will increase by 1%, in 2023 and 2024 by 2%.