Crop response pattern to several drought timescales and its possible determinants: A global-scale analysis during the last decades

IF 3.3 2区地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Anthropocene Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ancene.2023.100389

Vempi Satriya Adi Hendrawan , Wonsik Kim , Daisuke Komori

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Crop response characteristics to different timescales of precipitation deficit may represent crop system resilience to drought characteristics. In this study, we assess the crop yield response of major crops to meteorological drought estimated by a standardized precipitation index with multiple timescales (1–12 months) during 1981–2016 all over the globe. We estimate that about one- to two-thirds of global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean, and wheat, were significantly affected by various drought timescales. Soybean and wheat might respond to more prolonged droughts, while rice and maize responded to short-medium drought time scales. Using multiple machine learning models, we reveal that set of determinants could explain most variations of crop response to drought timescale with average accuracies between 45.7% and 56.0% (across models and crop types). Moreover, this study suggests that crops in warmer and higher water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) might respond significantly to more short-term drought. The other factors (i.e., socioeconomic, fertilizer, soil, topography, production, irrigation) shows a complex and weaker effect on defining crop vulnerability to the various drought characteristics. This study attempts to fill the gaps in understanding global crop resistance to different drought characteristics. The future challenge in understanding the multifaceted effect of physical and socioeconomic factors on global crop vulnerability to drought may remain and should be addressed in further studies.

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作物对几个干旱时间尺度的反应模式及其可能的决定因素：过去几十年的全球范围分析

作物对降水亏缺不同时间尺度的响应特征可能反映了作物系统的抗旱能力特征。以1981-2016年多时间尺度(1-12个月)标准化降水指数估算的全球主要作物产量对气象干旱的响应为研究对象。我们估计，全球约有1 - 2 / 3的玉米、水稻、大豆和小麦收获面积受到各种干旱时间尺度的显著影响。大豆和小麦可能会对更长时间的干旱做出反应，而水稻和玉米对中短干旱时间尺度做出反应。通过使用多个机器学习模型，我们发现一组决定因素可以解释作物对干旱时间尺度的大多数变化，平均精度在45.7%到56.0%之间(跨模型和作物类型)。此外，本研究表明，在更温暖和更高水分可用性(降水减去潜在蒸散)的地区，作物可能对更短期的干旱做出显著响应。其他因素(即社会经济、肥料、土壤、地形、生产、灌溉)在确定作物对各种干旱特征的脆弱性方面表现出复杂而较弱的影响。本研究试图填补在了解全球作物对不同干旱特征的抗性方面的空白。在了解自然和社会经济因素对全球作物抗旱脆弱性的多方面影响方面，未来的挑战可能仍然存在，应该在进一步的研究中加以解决。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Anthropocene Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

102 days

期刊介绍： Anthropocene is an interdisciplinary journal that publishes peer-reviewed works addressing the nature, scale, and extent of interactions that people have with Earth processes and systems. The scope of the journal includes the significance of human activities in altering Earth’s landscapes, oceans, the atmosphere, cryosphere, and ecosystems over a range of time and space scales - from global phenomena over geologic eras to single isolated events - including the linkages, couplings, and feedbacks among physical, chemical, and biological components of Earth systems. The journal also addresses how such alterations can have profound effects on, and implications for, human society. As the scale and pace of human interactions with Earth systems have intensified in recent decades, understanding human-induced alterations in the past and present is critical to our ability to anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to changes in the future. The journal aims to provide a venue to focus research findings, discussions, and debates toward advancing predictive understanding of human interactions with Earth systems - one of the grand challenges of our time.