THE INFLUENCE OF WINTER-SPRING TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ON THE SPRING FLOOD WAVE

Pub Date : 2022-06-28 DOI:10.32523/2306-6172-2022-10-2-4-10

Yuri B. Kirsta, I. Troshkova

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The complex influence of meteorological conditions on the first (April) wave of spring-summer flooding of the mountain rivers was studied by the example of 34 mid-size and small rivers of the Altai-Sayan mountain country covering more than 2,000,000 km2 of the Central Asia territory. System-analytical modeling was employed to describe the complex dependence of April river runoff on air temperatures and precipitation for December-April. The impact of factors was quantitatively assessed through solving the inverse mathematical problem and using 1,760 values of river runoff for 1951-2019, meteorological data and carto- graphic information on the relief and landscape structure of river basins calculated in ArcGIS 10.2. Precipitation accumulated in December-March as snow cover had a positive effect on runoff only in case of proximity of winter temperatures to their long-term mean values. At low April temperatures, river runoff increased along with the growth of current precipitation, while at temperature rise it decreased. The established dependencies of the first flood wave on meteorological factors are of great importance for effective preventing adverse effects of spring floods in the mountain regions.

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冬春季气温和降水对春季洪水波的影响

以阿尔泰萨延山国家34条中小河流为例，研究了气象条件对山区河流第一波（4月）春夏洪水的复杂影响，这些河流覆盖了中亚200多万平方公里的领土。采用系统分析建模来描述四月河流径流对12月至4月气温和降水的复杂依赖性。通过求解逆数学问题，利用ArcGIS 10.2中计算的1951-2019年1760个河流径流量值、气象数据和流域地形地貌信息，对各因素的影响进行了定量评估。只有在冬季温度接近长期平均值的情况下，由于积雪，12月至3月的降水量才会对径流产生积极影响。在4月的低温下，河流径流量随着当前降水量的增加而增加，而在气温上升时则减少。第一波洪水对气象因素的依赖性对于有效预防山区春季洪水的不利影响具有重要意义。

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