Were wages converging during the 2010s expansion?

Abstract

This article uses multiple surveys and data sourced from administrative records to examine trends in wage inequality from 2003 to 2019. Survey evidence shows that wages were growing more unequal from 2003 to 2013 as wages grew faster among high-wage workers than among low-wage workers. However, from 2013 to 2019, the same surveys show substantial wage gains for workers in the second and third deciles of the wage distribution, particularly among material moving workers and health aides. Administrative tax data also show substantial gains in annual wage and salary earnings income for earners in the lower portion of the earnings distribution in the same years. Wage growth among lower wage workers was large enough to reduce overall wage inequality from 2013 to 2019 in Occupational Employment and Wages Survey data. In tax data, wage growth among lower earning workers was large enough to reduce overall earnings inequality from 2010 to 2018. In data from the Current Population Survey, a plateau was found in overall wage inequality—rather than the clear decline found in the other two data sources—in the later years of the economic expansion.