Multisector exposure and vulnerability to climate change in India: Case of National Capital Territory of Delhi, India

Abstract

PurposeThe idea is to propagate the concept of climate resilience in India beyond international mandates and bold statements, enabled through utilization of open data. The research underscores need for climate responsive planning for megacities in India with an example of National Capital Territory of Delhi, the capital of India whose trends and policies often form a blueprint for others to follow.Design/methodology/approachThe research was conducted in six distinct, yet inter-related stages: literature review, data collection, data analysis at four levels – city, zonal, planning division and flood plains inhabited by climate vulnerable population with least adaptive capacity, formulating alternative scenarios of future development, evaluation of scenarios, conclusions and recommendations.FindingsIndia has approximately 8,000 urban centres. Less than 2% of these centres have a planning document. Less than 1% of these documents acknowledge climate change as a phenomenon let alone a challenge to urban future. It is therefore a priority to address the challenge from a planning perspective for India.Research limitations/implicationsMethodologies for evaluating the multiplier effect are still in their pre-final stage and there exist uncertainties and margin of error.Practical implicationsAligned with pre-tested methodologies, the research through extensive empirical and spatial-temporal analysis indicates severity and irreversibility of socio-economic and environmental losses.Originality/valueRisks and vulnerabilities to climate change and climate induced disasters exhibit multiplier effect that varies spatially across a region's demography. Quantitative analysis of multiplier effect on the secondary environment is rarely explored in climate studies. The paper addresses this lacuna by examining climate risks to Indian megacities with a case example of Delhi. The findings suggest that urbanization, climate risks and natural environment are interlinked, where an impact of one generates ripples across other two and their secondary environment plus sectors.