AUKUS: When naval procurement sets grand strategy

Abstract

Traditionally, a grand strategy lays out the trade-offs a state must make in pursuit of security, thereby setting all aspects of foreign policy, from trade deals to defence budgets. This essay argues that the trade-offs embodied in a deal as complex, expensive, and long-lasting as AUKUS will manifest themselves in Australia's grand strategy for decades to come. Going forward, Australia's naval procurement decisions will shape its grand strategy, rather than vice versa. The essay makes three related points. First, Australia's costly reneging on France in favour of the US is the most important aspect of the deal to date. Even if these nuclear submarines are never built (a not entirely remote possibility), this shift in investment will determine Australia's approach to the world for a generation. Second, understanding this approach requires acknowledging that arms deals, even between allies, are tough, zero-sum negotiations requiring all parties to give up something of value. Given this, the essay makes the final point that Australia, and any other country entering AUKUS in the future, will pay in autonomy as much as in dollars.