Planning for a Just Energy Transition: If Not Now, When?

Abstract

This year saw the publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 6th comprehensive assessment of climate change, including the third and final section, published in April 2022, outlining the urgency of transitioning to a zero carbon society (IPCC, 2022). At current projections, it is increasingly likely that global warming during the twenty-first Century will exceed the 1.5 C limit established at successive UN COP Climate Conventions. Indeed, limiting warming to less that 2 C relies on the rapid acceleration of mitigation efforts. Greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025 and should be almost halved this decade to provide a pathway to limiting heating to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels. However, rather than a rapid acceleration of mitigation, the IPCC assessment notes that projected cumulative future CO2 emissions over the lifetime of existing and currently planned fossil fuel infrastructure, without additional abatement, will exceed the total cumulative net CO2 emissions that limit warming to 1.5 C. In stark summary, without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, limiting global warming to 1.5 C is beyond reach. With understatement, the IPCC review highlights the challenge of overcoming the implementation gap between agreed greenhouse gas emission targets and projected higher global emissions. Issues of energy security are high on political agendas for other reasons too, not least the Russian invasion of Ukraine earlier this year. In developing political and economic sanctions “the west” has been hampered by its reliance on Russian gas and oil imports. European Union member states, for example, are dependent on Russia for 40% of their gas, with Germany particularly exposed at 60%. Russia also accounts for 27% of oil imports and 46% of coal imports to the European Union. In March, the European Commission announced plans to make Europe independent from Russian fossil fuels before 2030, with a two-thirds reduction by the end of 2022 (EC, 2022). Between continued climate change warnings and shifting geopolitical tensions, the case for a rapid transition to clean and green energy and for measures that reduce energy demand have never been clearer or more urgent. In relation to the energy questions posed by the war in Ukraine, while renewable energy is part of the mix of options, other political imperatives are also at play, particularly in relation to rapidly rising energy and fuel prices, which are having knock-on impacts on cost of living concerns. For politicians, this creates short term crises that lead to short term – and from a climate perspective – suboptimal responses that create longer term fossil fuel dependence. For example, as reported in The Guardian (Harvey, 2022), the US is seeking to expand imports of oil from countries previously shunned, such as Venezuela, while domestic oil and gas production from fracking is to be expanded. The UK has also sought alternative oil supply options, encouraging Saudi Arabia to increase oil production. Countries that had previously banned fracking, are now putting all options for enhanced energy security on the table for consideration. However, as emphasized by the IPCC review, we are beyond short termism – rising energy costs and energy security in an era of geopolitical instability must align with global net-zero ambitions and provide further impetus for an energy transition. Decarbonization requires systemic change and a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach to deliver a transformation of our sociotechnical systems i.e. the interlinked mix of technologies, infrastructures, organizations, markets, regulations, and user practices that together deliver societal functions (Geels et al., 2017). As highlighted by the IPCC review, cities and urban areas offer