Spatio-temporal dynamics of ecological security pattern of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration based on LUCC simulation

IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Zhao-Tian Li , Miao Li , Bei-Cheng Xia
{"title":"Spatio-temporal dynamics of ecological security pattern of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration based on LUCC simulation","authors":"Zhao-Tian Li ,&nbsp;Miao Li ,&nbsp;Bei-Cheng Xia","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106319","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In the past four decades, China has achieved tremendous economic success, but it has also faced serious ecological security (ES) problems. The land use/cover change (LUCC) plays a decisive role in the issue of ES. LUCC and ES evaluation were combined by predicting the change in land use and simulating ES pattern. Taking the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration (PRD) as the study area, the temporal changes of land use were predicted by the CA-Markov model, and the land use pattern in three different scenarios in 2025 was simulated. Based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model, the ES evaluation of the PRD in 2005, 2010 and 2015 was carried out, and the safety level dropped from 75.39% to 66.67% in this period. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed by the GeoDA to reflect the dynamic of ES pattern of the PRD, which suggested that there is greater heterogeneity within the PRD, and the homogenous sub-region continues to increase. Through change the transition probability among different land use types, three scenarios were set: Inertial development, Over expansion, and Ecological protection scenario, which showed that the expansion of construction land (accounting for 18.58%, 20.12% and 17.93% respectively) must occupy agricultural and forest lands and lead to decrease on ES level, the safety level are accounting for 79.07%, 78.30% and 79.95% in the three scenarios respectively. The ES pattern of the PRD was described, the central sub-region of the PRD with high urbanization have relative low ES, and the periphery sub-regions with good ecological order have high ES level, there are more than 63.59% and less than 4.06% of unsafety level of Dongguan and Zhaoqing respectively, which are both the representative city of these two sub-regions. Based on the spatial-temporal dynamic of urban ES, the optimized ES pattern of the PRD was proposed, three eco-functional zones were determined: ecological conservation zone, living environment guarantee zone and ecological restoration zone. The eco-functional zones have defined the leading ecological functions of each sub-region and could gradually improve the integrity and connectivity of the entire ecosystem of the PRD, which provides valuable knowledge for understanding and planning regional city management.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 106319"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106319","citationCount":"104","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecological Indicators","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X20302569","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 104

Abstract

In the past four decades, China has achieved tremendous economic success, but it has also faced serious ecological security (ES) problems. The land use/cover change (LUCC) plays a decisive role in the issue of ES. LUCC and ES evaluation were combined by predicting the change in land use and simulating ES pattern. Taking the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration (PRD) as the study area, the temporal changes of land use were predicted by the CA-Markov model, and the land use pattern in three different scenarios in 2025 was simulated. Based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model, the ES evaluation of the PRD in 2005, 2010 and 2015 was carried out, and the safety level dropped from 75.39% to 66.67% in this period. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed by the GeoDA to reflect the dynamic of ES pattern of the PRD, which suggested that there is greater heterogeneity within the PRD, and the homogenous sub-region continues to increase. Through change the transition probability among different land use types, three scenarios were set: Inertial development, Over expansion, and Ecological protection scenario, which showed that the expansion of construction land (accounting for 18.58%, 20.12% and 17.93% respectively) must occupy agricultural and forest lands and lead to decrease on ES level, the safety level are accounting for 79.07%, 78.30% and 79.95% in the three scenarios respectively. The ES pattern of the PRD was described, the central sub-region of the PRD with high urbanization have relative low ES, and the periphery sub-regions with good ecological order have high ES level, there are more than 63.59% and less than 4.06% of unsafety level of Dongguan and Zhaoqing respectively, which are both the representative city of these two sub-regions. Based on the spatial-temporal dynamic of urban ES, the optimized ES pattern of the PRD was proposed, three eco-functional zones were determined: ecological conservation zone, living environment guarantee zone and ecological restoration zone. The eco-functional zones have defined the leading ecological functions of each sub-region and could gradually improve the integrity and connectivity of the entire ecosystem of the PRD, which provides valuable knowledge for understanding and planning regional city management.

基于土地覆盖变化模拟的珠三角城市群生态安全格局时空动态
在过去的四十年里,中国取得了巨大的经济成就,但也面临着严重的生态安全问题。土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)在ES问题中起决定性作用。通过预测土地利用变化和模拟生态系统格局,将土地利用变化与生态系统评价相结合。以珠三角城市群为研究区,利用CA-Markov模型对其土地利用变化进行了预测,并对2025年3种不同情景下的土地利用格局进行了模拟。基于压力-状态-响应(Pressure-State-Response, PSR)模型,对珠江三角洲2005年、2010年和2015年进行了ES评价,结果表明该时期珠江三角洲的安全等级从75.39%下降到66.67%。GeoDA空间自相关分析反映了珠江三角洲ES格局的动态变化,表明珠江三角洲内部存在较大的异质性,同质子区域持续增加。通过改变不同土地利用类型间的过渡概率,设置了惯性开发、过度扩张和生态保护3种情景,结果表明,建设用地扩张(分别占18.58%、20.12%和17.93%)必然占用农用地和林地,导致ES水平下降,3种情景的安全等级分别占79.07%、78.30%和79.95%。描述了珠三角的ES格局,城市化程度高的中部次区域ES水平相对较低,生态秩序良好的外围次区域ES水平较高,其中东莞和肇庆的不安全水平分别大于63.59%和小于4.06%,均为这两个次区域的代表城市。基于城市生态系统的时空动态,提出了珠江三角洲城市生态系统优化格局,划分了生态涵养区、人居环境保障区和生态恢复区3个生态功能区。生态功能区界定了各子区域的主导生态功能,可逐步提高珠三角整个生态系统的完整性和连通性,为理解和规划区域城市管理提供有价值的知识。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
Ecological Indicators
Ecological Indicators 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
11.80
自引率
8.70%
发文量
1163
审稿时长
78 days
期刊介绍: The ultimate aim of Ecological Indicators is to integrate the monitoring and assessment of ecological and environmental indicators with management practices. The journal provides a forum for the discussion of the applied scientific development and review of traditional indicator approaches as well as for theoretical, modelling and quantitative applications such as index development. Research into the following areas will be published. • All aspects of ecological and environmental indicators and indices. • New indicators, and new approaches and methods for indicator development, testing and use. • Development and modelling of indices, e.g. application of indicator suites across multiple scales and resources. • Analysis and research of resource, system- and scale-specific indicators. • Methods for integration of social and other valuation metrics for the production of scientifically rigorous and politically-relevant assessments using indicator-based monitoring and assessment programs. • How research indicators can be transformed into direct application for management purposes. • Broader assessment objectives and methods, e.g. biodiversity, biological integrity, and sustainability, through the use of indicators. • Resource-specific indicators such as landscape, agroecosystems, forests, wetlands, etc.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信