{"title":"Spatio-temporal dynamics of ecological security pattern of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration based on LUCC simulation","authors":"Zhao-Tian Li , Miao Li , Bei-Cheng Xia","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106319","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In the past four decades, China has achieved tremendous economic success, but it has also faced serious ecological security (ES) problems. The land use/cover change (LUCC) plays a decisive role in the issue of ES. LUCC and ES evaluation were combined by predicting the change in land use and simulating ES pattern. Taking the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration (PRD) as the study area, the temporal changes of land use were predicted by the CA-Markov model, and the land use pattern in three different scenarios in 2025 was simulated. Based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model, the ES evaluation of the PRD in 2005, 2010 and 2015 was carried out, and the safety level dropped from 75.39% to 66.67% in this period. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed by the GeoDA to reflect the dynamic of ES pattern of the PRD, which suggested that there is greater heterogeneity within the PRD, and the homogenous sub-region continues to increase. Through change the transition probability among different land use types, three scenarios were set: Inertial development, Over expansion, and Ecological protection scenario, which showed that the expansion of construction land (accounting for 18.58%, 20.12% and 17.93% respectively) must occupy agricultural and forest lands and lead to decrease on ES level, the safety level are accounting for 79.07%, 78.30% and 79.95% in the three scenarios respectively. The ES pattern of the PRD was described, the central sub-region of the PRD with high urbanization have relative low ES, and the periphery sub-regions with good ecological order have high ES level, there are more than 63.59% and less than 4.06% of unsafety level of Dongguan and Zhaoqing respectively, which are both the representative city of these two sub-regions. Based on the spatial-temporal dynamic of urban ES, the optimized ES pattern of the PRD was proposed, three eco-functional zones were determined: ecological conservation zone, living environment guarantee zone and ecological restoration zone. The eco-functional zones have defined the leading ecological functions of each sub-region and could gradually improve the integrity and connectivity of the entire ecosystem of the PRD, which provides valuable knowledge for understanding and planning regional city management.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 106319"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106319","citationCount":"104","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecological Indicators","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X20302569","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 104
Abstract
In the past four decades, China has achieved tremendous economic success, but it has also faced serious ecological security (ES) problems. The land use/cover change (LUCC) plays a decisive role in the issue of ES. LUCC and ES evaluation were combined by predicting the change in land use and simulating ES pattern. Taking the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration (PRD) as the study area, the temporal changes of land use were predicted by the CA-Markov model, and the land use pattern in three different scenarios in 2025 was simulated. Based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model, the ES evaluation of the PRD in 2005, 2010 and 2015 was carried out, and the safety level dropped from 75.39% to 66.67% in this period. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed by the GeoDA to reflect the dynamic of ES pattern of the PRD, which suggested that there is greater heterogeneity within the PRD, and the homogenous sub-region continues to increase. Through change the transition probability among different land use types, three scenarios were set: Inertial development, Over expansion, and Ecological protection scenario, which showed that the expansion of construction land (accounting for 18.58%, 20.12% and 17.93% respectively) must occupy agricultural and forest lands and lead to decrease on ES level, the safety level are accounting for 79.07%, 78.30% and 79.95% in the three scenarios respectively. The ES pattern of the PRD was described, the central sub-region of the PRD with high urbanization have relative low ES, and the periphery sub-regions with good ecological order have high ES level, there are more than 63.59% and less than 4.06% of unsafety level of Dongguan and Zhaoqing respectively, which are both the representative city of these two sub-regions. Based on the spatial-temporal dynamic of urban ES, the optimized ES pattern of the PRD was proposed, three eco-functional zones were determined: ecological conservation zone, living environment guarantee zone and ecological restoration zone. The eco-functional zones have defined the leading ecological functions of each sub-region and could gradually improve the integrity and connectivity of the entire ecosystem of the PRD, which provides valuable knowledge for understanding and planning regional city management.
期刊介绍:
The ultimate aim of Ecological Indicators is to integrate the monitoring and assessment of ecological and environmental indicators with management practices. The journal provides a forum for the discussion of the applied scientific development and review of traditional indicator approaches as well as for theoretical, modelling and quantitative applications such as index development. Research into the following areas will be published.
• All aspects of ecological and environmental indicators and indices.
• New indicators, and new approaches and methods for indicator development, testing and use.
• Development and modelling of indices, e.g. application of indicator suites across multiple scales and resources.
• Analysis and research of resource, system- and scale-specific indicators.
• Methods for integration of social and other valuation metrics for the production of scientifically rigorous and politically-relevant assessments using indicator-based monitoring and assessment programs.
• How research indicators can be transformed into direct application for management purposes.
• Broader assessment objectives and methods, e.g. biodiversity, biological integrity, and sustainability, through the use of indicators.
• Resource-specific indicators such as landscape, agroecosystems, forests, wetlands, etc.