Russia's invasion of Ukraine: assessment of the humanitarian, economic, and financial impact in the short and medium term.

IF 1.5 Q2 ECONOMICS
Vasily Astrov, Mahdi Ghodsi, Richard Grieveson, Mario Holzner, Artem Kochnev, Michael Landesmann, Olga Pindyuk, Robert Stehrer, Maryna Tverdostup, Alexandra Bykova
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

What are the economic effects of the Ukraine war for Ukraine, Russia, and the rest of Europe? In this study, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) sheds light on the immediate consequences on the one hand, but also on the medium-term structural changes caused by the largest armed conflict in Europe since the Second World War. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a humanitarian crisis. Pre-war, almost 19 m people lived in those regions that are currently directly affected. Refugee inflows to the rest of Europe are likely to be at least three times greater than in 2015/2016. As Black Sea ports come under Russian assault, Ukraine has lost its ability to sell more than half of its exports, primarily agricultural commodities and metals. Western financial support will become ever more important as the war continues. Turning to Russia, sanctions will have a very serious impact on that country's economy and financial sector. Despite being partly hamstrung by the fact that a large proportion of Russian reserve assets are frozen in the EU and G7, the central bank managed to stabilise financial markets by a combination of confidence-building and hard-steering measures: capital controls, FX controls, regulatory easing for financial institutions, and a doubling of the key policy rate. The medium-term and long-term outlook is negative. As a result of the war and the sanctions, the rest of Europe faces a surge in already high inflation; this will weigh on real incomes and will depress economic growth. Many European countries rely heavily on Russia for oil and gas imports: import shares are over 75% in Czechia, Latvia, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria with respect to natural gas; Slovakia, Lithuania, Poland, and Finland with respect to oil and petroleum; and Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Denmark, Lithuania, Greece, and Bulgaria with respect to solid fuels. Aside from energy, the fallout via trade for the rest of Europe is likely to be small. Non-energy trade and investment links between Russia and many European countries have declined in importance since 2013. There are four main areas of structural change and lasting impact for the EU (and Europe more broadly) as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. First, the EU will get more serious about defence. Second, the green transition will gather pace. Third, broader Eurasian economic integration will be unwound. And fourth, the EU accession prospects for countries in Southeast Europe could (and should) improve.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10368-022-00546-5.

俄罗斯入侵乌克兰:评估短期和中期的人道主义、经济和金融影响
乌克兰战争对乌克兰、俄罗斯和欧洲其他国家的经济影响是什么?在这项研究中,维也纳国际经济研究所(wiiw)一方面阐明了直接后果,同时也阐明了自第二次世界大战以来欧洲最大的武装冲突所造成的中期结构变化。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰引发了一场人道主义危机。战前,近1900万人生活在目前直接受影响的地区。流入欧洲其他地区的难民可能至少是2015/2016年的三倍。随着黑海港口受到俄罗斯的攻击,乌克兰已经失去了一半以上的出口能力,主要是农产品和金属。随着战争的继续,西方的财政支持将变得越来越重要。至于俄罗斯,制裁将对该国的经济和金融部门产生非常严重的影响。尽管俄罗斯很大一部分储备资产被冻结在欧盟和七国集团(G7)这一事实在一定程度上削弱了俄罗斯央行的能力,但它通过建立信心和强硬指导措施的结合,成功稳定了金融市场:资本管制、外汇管制、放松对金融机构的监管,以及将关键政策利率提高一倍。中期和长期前景是负面的。由于战争和制裁,欧洲其他国家面临着本已很高的通胀飙升;这将影响实际收入,抑制经济增长。许多欧洲国家严重依赖俄罗斯的石油和天然气进口:捷克、拉脱维亚、匈牙利、斯洛伐克和保加利亚的天然气进口份额超过75%;斯洛伐克、立陶宛、波兰和芬兰在石油和石油方面;以及塞浦路斯、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、丹麦、立陶宛、希腊和保加利亚的固体燃料。除了能源业,对欧洲其他国家贸易的影响可能很小。自2013年以来,俄罗斯与许多欧洲国家之间的非能源贸易和投资联系的重要性有所下降。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰给欧盟(以及更广泛的欧洲)带来了四个主要领域的结构性变化和持久影响。首先,欧盟将更加重视国防。第二,绿色转型将加快步伐。第三,更广泛的欧亚经济一体化将得以展开。第四,东南欧国家加入欧盟的前景可以(也应该)改善。补充信息:在线版本包含补充资料,下载地址:10.1007/s10368-022-00546-5。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
24
期刊介绍: The double-blind peer reviewed Journal International Economics and Economic Policy publishes empirical and theoretical contributions, especially papers which are relevant for economic policy. The main focus of the journal is on comparative economic policy, international political economy, including international organizations and policy cooperation, monetary and real/technological dynamics in open economies, globalization and regional integration, trade, migration, international investment, internet commerce and regulation.IEEP particularly offers contributions from the policy community and provides a forum for exchange for the academic and policy community. Officially cited as: Int Econ Econ Policy
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