Seismic hazard analysis for engineering sites based on the stochastic finite-fault method

IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences
Ruifang Yu, Yisheng Song, Xiangyun Guo, Qianli Yang, Xinjuan He, Yanxiang Yu
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Seismic hazard analyses are mainly performed using either deterministic or probabilistic methods. However, there are still some defects in these statistical model-based approaches for regional seismic risk assessment affected by the near-field of large earthquakes. Therefore, we established a deterministic seismic hazard analysis method that can characterize the entire process of ground motion propagation based on stochastic finite-fault simulation, and we chose the site of the Xiluodu dam to demonstrate the method. This method can characterize earthquake source properties more realistically than other methods and consider factors such as the path and site attenuation of seismic waves. It also has high computational efficiency and is convenient for engineering applications. We first analyzed the complexity of seismogenic structures in the Xiluodu dam site area, and then an evaluation system for ground motion parameters that considers various uncertainties is constructed based on a stochastic finite-fault simulation. Finally, we assessed the seismic hazard of the dam site area comprehensively. The proposed method was able to take into account the complexity of the seismogenic structures affecting the dam site and provide multi-level parameter evaluation results corresponding to different risk levels. These results can be used to construct a dam safety assessment system of an earthquake in advance that provides technical support for rapidly and accurately assessing the post-earthquake damage state of a dam, thus determining the influence of an earthquake on dam safety and mitigating the risk of potential secondary disasters.

基于随机有限断层法的工程场地地震危险性分析
地震灾害分析主要采用确定性或概率方法。然而,这些基于统计模型的方法在大地震近场影响下的区域地震危险性评价中仍存在一些缺陷。因此,我们基于随机有限断层模拟,建立了一种能够表征地震动传播全过程的确定性地震危险性分析方法,并以溪洛渡坝址为例进行了验证。该方法比其他方法更能真实地表征震源性质,并考虑了地震波的路径和场地衰减等因素。计算效率高,便于工程应用。首先分析了溪洛都坝址区孕震构造的复杂性,然后在随机有限断层模拟的基础上,构建了考虑各种不确定性的地震动参数评价体系。最后,对坝址区域的地震危险性进行了综合评价。该方法能够考虑到影响坝址的发震构造的复杂性,并提供对应于不同风险等级的多层次参数评价结果。研究结果可用于提前构建大坝地震安全评价体系,为快速准确地评估大坝震后破坏状态提供技术支持,从而确定地震对大坝安全的影响,降低潜在次生灾害的风险。
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来源期刊
Earthquake Science
Earthquake Science GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS-
CiteScore
1.10
自引率
8.30%
发文量
42
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Earthquake Science (EQS) aims to publish high-quality, original, peer-reviewed articles on earthquake-related research subjects. It is an English international journal sponsored by the Seismological Society of China and the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration. The topics include, but not limited to, the following ● Seismic sources of all kinds. ● Earth structure at all scales. ● Seismotectonics. ● New methods and theoretical seismology. ● Strong ground motion. ● Seismic phenomena of all kinds. ● Seismic hazards, earthquake forecasting and prediction. ● Seismic instrumentation. ● Significant recent or past seismic events. ● Documentation of recent seismic events or important observations. ● Descriptions of field deployments, new methods, and available software tools. The types of manuscripts include the following. There is no length requirement, except for the Short Notes. 【Articles】 Original contributions that have not been published elsewhere. 【Short Notes】 Short papers of recent events or topics that warrant rapid peer reviews and publications. Limited to 4 publication pages. 【Rapid Communications】 Significant contributions that warrant rapid peer reviews and publications. 【Review Articles】Review articles are by invitation only. Please contact the editorial office and editors for possible proposals. 【Toolboxes】 Descriptions of novel numerical methods and associated computer codes. 【Data Products】 Documentation of datasets of various kinds that are interested to the community and available for open access (field data, processed data, synthetic data, or models). 【Opinions】Views on important topics and future directions in earthquake science. 【Comments and Replies】Commentaries on a recently published EQS paper is welcome. The authors of the paper commented will be invited to reply. Both the Comment and the Reply are subject to peer review.
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