Colonization of urban futures in the Global South: lessons from the case of Isfahan 2040

IF 2.3 Q3 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING
Foresight Pub Date : 2023-07-13 DOI:10.1108/fs-01-2023-0004
Ali Zackery, Mohsen Taheri Demneh, Maryam Ebadi Nejad
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Abstract

Purpose Due to the limitations of conventional urban planning, it is essential to develop novel techniques of urban futruing. This paper aimed to use the scenario technique to create four plausible narratives of the future of Isfahan. Also, the authors described the problems of city foresight in the Global South. Design/methodology/approach This paper chronicles the Schwartzian steps taken to build explorative scenarios of Isfahan City in Iran in 2040. After using a STEEPV (Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, Value) analysis, the authors prioritized the collected variables by combining influence diagrams, the iceberg metaphor and an expert-based survey. Once the key uncertainties were derived, four scenarios were developed and discussed. Findings Through thematic analysis of the official visions of Isfahan’s future and the juxtaposition of these narratives with insight yielded in the scenario-development process, the paper concludes that the Northernness of the prevailing urban imaginaries, uncritical mimetic benchmarking, depoliticization of urban futures and the decorative reductionistic visions colonize urban futures in Isfahan/Iran. Critical/deconstructive city foresight and application of discomfort/ignorance criteria in the generation of scenarios can improve the rigor and quality of city foresight in the Global South. Originality/value The application of city foresight in the Global South has been limited. The paper is a step toward bridging this gap and providing some recommendations on how city foresight in the Global South might differ from its counterparts in the Global North.
全球南方城市未来的殖民化:2040年伊斯法罕案例的教训
目的由于传统城市规划的局限性,开发新的城市规划技术势在必行。本文旨在运用情景手法,为伊斯法罕的未来创造四种似是而非的叙事。此外,作者还描述了全球南方城市远见的问题。设计/方法/方法本文记录了施瓦茨为构建2040年伊朗伊斯法罕市的探索性场景所采取的步骤。在使用了社会、技术、环境、经济、政治、价值(陡峭)分析之后,作者通过结合影响图、冰山隐喻和基于专家的调查,对收集到的变量进行了优先排序。一旦确定了关键的不确定性,就开发并讨论了四种情景。通过对伊斯法罕未来官方愿景的专题分析,并将这些叙事与场景发展过程中产生的见解并列,本文得出结论,普遍存在的城市想象的北方性、不加批判的模仿基准、城市未来的非政治化和装饰性的简化主义愿景殖民了伊斯法罕/伊朗的城市未来。批判性/解构性的城市预见和不适/无知标准在情景生成中的应用可以提高全球南方城市预见的严谨性和质量。独创性/价值城市远见在南方国家的应用有限。这篇论文是弥合这一差距的一步,并就全球南方国家的城市远见与全球北方国家的城市远见有何不同提供了一些建议。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Foresight
Foresight REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING-
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
5.00%
发文量
45
期刊介绍: ■Social, political and economic science ■Sustainable development ■Horizon scanning ■Scientific and Technological Change and its implications for society and policy ■Management of Uncertainty, Complexity and Risk ■Foresight methodology, tools and techniques
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