Geopolitical Risk and Energy Market

IF 1.7 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-03-30 DOI:10.1515/peps-2022-0033

Kristina Hudecova, M. Rajcaniova

引用次数: 1

Abstract

Abstract The fundamental aim of this paper is to test the symmetric and asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on the five selected prices of energy commodities, consisting of coal, crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas, during the period 2 January 2020–29 July 2022 by application of linear and nonlinear ARDL models. Moreover, we also study the impact of anticipated financial volatility on energy commodities. Our results suggest that, over the long term, there is no linear relationship between geopolitical risk, financial volatility, and energy prices. On the other hand, we find statistically significant asymmetrical effects of geopolitical risk and financial volatility on crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil prices in the long and short run. We also identify that coal and natural gas prices do not respond to changes in geopolitical risk during the analysed period.

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地缘政治风险与能源市场

摘要本文的基本目的是通过应用线性和非线性ARDL模型，检验2020年1月2日至2022年7月29日期间地缘政治风险对煤炭、原油、汽油、取暖油和天然气五种能源商品价格的对称和不对称影响。此外，我们还研究了预期的金融波动对能源商品的影响。我们的研究结果表明，从长期来看，地缘政治风险、金融波动和能源价格之间没有线性关系。另一方面，我们发现地缘政治风险和金融波动对原油、汽油和取暖油价格的长期和短期不对称影响具有统计学意义。我们还发现，在分析期间，煤炭和天然气价格对地缘政治风险的变化没有反应。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy POLITICAL SCIENCE-

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

10.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The journal accepts rigorous, non-technical papers especially in research methods in peace science, but also regular papers dealing with all aspects of the peace science field, from pure abstract theory to practical applied research. As a guide to topics: - Arms Control and International Security - Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Studies - Behavioral Studies - Conflict Analysis and Management - Cooperation, Alliances and Games - Crises and War Studies - Critical Economic Aspects of the Global Crises - Deterrence Theory - Empirical and Historical Studies on the Causes of War - Game, Prospect and Related Theory - Harmony and Conflict - Hierarchy Theory