{"title":"A large-scale analytical residential parcel delivery model evaluating greenhouse gas emissions, COVID-19 impact, and cargo bikes","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijtst.2023.08.002","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The e-commerce industry has experienced significant growth in the past decade, particularly post-COVID. To accommodate such growth, the parcel delivery sector has also grown rapidly. However, there is a lack of study that properly evaluates its social and environmental impacts at a large scale. A model is proposed to analyze such impacts. A parcel generation process is presented to convert public data into parcel volumes and stops. A continuous approximation model is fitted to estimate the length of parcel service tours. A case study is conducted using New York City (NYC) data. The parcel generation is shown to be a valid fit. The continuous approximation model parameters have <em>R</em><sup>2</sup> values of 98% or higher. The model output is validated against<!--> <!-->UPS truck trips. Application of the model to<!--> <!-->2021 suggests<!--> <!-->residential parcel deliveries contributed to 0.05% of total daily vehicle-kilometer-traveled (VKT) in NYC<!--> <!-->corresponding<!--> <!-->to 14.4 metric tons of carbon equivalent (MTCE) emissions per day. COVID-19 contributed to an increase in parcel deliveries that led to up to 1 064.3 MTCE of annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in NYC (which could power 532 standard US households for a<!--> <!-->year). The existing bike lane infrastructure can support the substitution of 17% of parcel deliveries by cargo bikes, which would reduce VKT by 11%. Adding 3 km of bike lanes to connect Amazon facilities can expand their cargo bike substitution benefit from a VKT reduction of 5% up to 30%. If 28 km of additional bike lanes are made, parcel delivery substitution citywide could increase from 17% to 34% via cargo bike and save an additional 2.3 MTCE per day. Cargo bike priorities can be set to reduce GHG emissions for lower-income neighborhoods including Harlem, Sunset Park, and Bushwick.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52282,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology","volume":"15 ","pages":"Pages 136-154"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2046043023000692","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"TRANSPORTATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The e-commerce industry has experienced significant growth in the past decade, particularly post-COVID. To accommodate such growth, the parcel delivery sector has also grown rapidly. However, there is a lack of study that properly evaluates its social and environmental impacts at a large scale. A model is proposed to analyze such impacts. A parcel generation process is presented to convert public data into parcel volumes and stops. A continuous approximation model is fitted to estimate the length of parcel service tours. A case study is conducted using New York City (NYC) data. The parcel generation is shown to be a valid fit. The continuous approximation model parameters have R2 values of 98% or higher. The model output is validated against UPS truck trips. Application of the model to 2021 suggests residential parcel deliveries contributed to 0.05% of total daily vehicle-kilometer-traveled (VKT) in NYC corresponding to 14.4 metric tons of carbon equivalent (MTCE) emissions per day. COVID-19 contributed to an increase in parcel deliveries that led to up to 1 064.3 MTCE of annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in NYC (which could power 532 standard US households for a year). The existing bike lane infrastructure can support the substitution of 17% of parcel deliveries by cargo bikes, which would reduce VKT by 11%. Adding 3 km of bike lanes to connect Amazon facilities can expand their cargo bike substitution benefit from a VKT reduction of 5% up to 30%. If 28 km of additional bike lanes are made, parcel delivery substitution citywide could increase from 17% to 34% via cargo bike and save an additional 2.3 MTCE per day. Cargo bike priorities can be set to reduce GHG emissions for lower-income neighborhoods including Harlem, Sunset Park, and Bushwick.