A method for estimating the number of collision candidates in two waterways – for all intersection angles

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2022-02-21 DOI:10.1017/S0373463321000898

F. Kaneko

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract Estimating the collision frequency of ships (F) is important for assessing collision risk on waterways. To date, F has been estimated as the product of the number of collision candidates $({N_{a }})$ and the causation probability $({P_c})$: $F = {N_{a}} \cdot {P_c}$, where ${N_{a }}$ represents the number of collisions that occur when related ships continue on course with no intervention, and ${P_c}$ is the probability that collision avoidance fails. Fujii developed a general method and Pedersen formulated it to estimate ${N_{a }}$ in an intersectional area. Their method is generally called ‘the geometric method’ because collision candidates are estimated only from the geometric relationship between two ships. The method has been used in many projects to estimate F in waterways; however, its use should be limited to intersection angles ranging from 10° to 170°. This paper presents a method, statistically verified by computer simulation, that can be used at all intersection angles to overcome this limitation. Moreover, it demonstrates strong agreement with Pedersen's method at intersection angles of 10° to 170°.

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一种估计两条水道中所有交叉角的碰撞候选数量的方法

摘要船舶碰撞频率(F)的估计是航道碰撞风险评估的重要内容。迄今为止，F已被估计为碰撞候选数$({N_{a}})$与因果概率$({P_c})$的乘积:$F = {N_{a}} \cdot {P_c}$，其中${N_{a}}$表示相关船舶在没有干预的情况下继续航行时发生的碰撞次数，${P_c}$表示避碰失败的概率。Fujii开发了一种通用方法，Pedersen将其表述为在相交区域估计${N_{a}}$。他们的方法通常被称为“几何方法”，因为只根据两艘船之间的几何关系来估计碰撞候选者。该方法已在许多工程中用于估算水道中的F;但是，其使用应限于10°至170°的交角范围。本文提出了一种方法，并通过计算机仿真进行了统计验证，该方法可用于所有交角，以克服这一限制。在10°~ 170°的交角范围内，该方法与Pedersen方法非常吻合。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.