Cohort Size and Unemployment Rate: New Insights from Nigeria

Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance
Ademola Obafemi Young
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

The debate on the nature of the relationship between cohort size and unemployment rate has been widely studied and generated a substantial body of literature in labor economics discourse. However, an in-depth reading of this literature suggests that, besides the fact that findings are mixed and do not provide conclusive evidences, one hardly ever comes across studies exclusively on African countries. Likewise, generalized studies across countries employing pooled data seem to dominate the literature. In light of these, the current study examines the nature of the said relationship, over the period 1970–2019, in Nigeria in a multivariate and dynamic framework. Employing Bounds testing procedure, the article finds that both the short-run and long-run impacts of cohort size on overall unemployment rate are positive and statistically significant. This suggests that aggregate unemployment rate tends to be higher when many young people supply labor. In view of these findings, the article recommends that government should collaborate with private sector to develop and implement functional microcredit schemes. Such schemes should be flexibly structured to avert institutional bottlenecks and enhance accountability and transparency in their management.
队列规模和失业率:来自尼日利亚的新见解
关于群体规模与失业率之间关系性质的争论已经被广泛研究,并在劳动经济学话语中产生了大量文献。然而,对这些文献的深入阅读表明,除了发现喜忧参半且不能提供确凿证据之外,人们几乎从未见过专门针对非洲国家的研究。同样,采用汇总数据的各国通用研究似乎在文献中占主导地位。有鉴于此,目前的研究在多变量和动态框架中考察了1970年至2019年期间尼日利亚上述关系的性质。采用Bounds检验程序,文章发现队列规模对整体失业率的短期和长期影响都是积极的,具有统计学意义。这表明,当许多年轻人提供劳动力时,总失业率往往会更高。鉴于这些发现,文章建议政府应与私营部门合作,制定和实施实用的小额信贷计划。这些计划的结构应灵活,以避免体制瓶颈,并加强其管理的问责制和透明度。
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来源期刊
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
27
期刊介绍: Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies is a peer-reviewed journal. The aim of the journal is to provide an international platform for knowledge sharing, discussion and networking on the various aspects related to emerging market economies through publications of original research. It aims to make available basic reference material for policy-makers, business executives and researchers interested in issues of fundamental importance to the economic prospects and performance of emerging market economies. The topics for discussion are related to the following general categories: D. Microeconomics E. Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics F. International Economics G. Financial Economics H. Public Economics I. Health, Education, and Welfare J. Labor and Demographic Economics L. Industrial Organization O. Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth Q. Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics R. Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics Additionally, the journal would be most interested to publish topics related to Global Financial Crisis and the Impact on Emerging Market Economies Economic Development and Inclusive Growth Climate Change and Energy Infrastructure Development and Public Private Partnerships Capital Flows to and from Emerging Market Economies Regional Cooperation Trade and Investment and Development of National and Regional Financial Markets The Belt and Road Initiative.
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