Realist Perspectives on Nile Politics: Conflict and Cooperation between Ethiopia and Egypt

IF 1.7 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE
Kaleb Demerew
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

ABSTRACT In Northeast Africa, great power interests have often impeded local capabilities for effective statecraft in anarchy. However, construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile presents a revealing case study of evolving domestic constraints on foreign policy. Three realist perspectives may be drawn upon to analyze Nile Politics and the GERD through the prism of statecraft and statebuilding in contemporary Ethiopia. In the neoclassical realism analysis, Nile policymaking emerges as a murky outcome of elite preferences and threat constructions. In the subaltern realism analysis, Ethiopia’s construction of the GERD, in defiance of Egypt, is the culmination of a decade-long statebuilding project resulting in improved capabilities for statecraft. In the constructivist realism analysis, Nile politics reveal Ethiopia’s evolving interests and ideational constraints informing variations in preferences for assertive foreign policy orientation. Notably, and in contrast to the association of mainstream constructivist approaches with optimistic outcomes in international politics, analysis of the Nile conflict through constructivist realism reveals the most pessimistic outlook on peaceful resolution, compared to other approaches. Subaltern realism reveals the most optimistic outlook on the outcome of this conflict, due to greater incentives for cooperation introduced by statebuilding constraints in Ethiopia’s increasingly unstable contemporary polity.
尼罗河政治的现实主义视角:埃塞俄比亚与埃及的冲突与合作
在非洲东北部,大国利益往往阻碍了当地在无政府状态下有效治国的能力。然而,大埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝(GERD)在尼罗河上的建设提供了一个具有启发性的案例研究,揭示了国内对外交政策的限制。通过当代埃塞俄比亚的治国方略和国家建设的棱镜,可以借鉴三个现实主义的观点来分析尼罗河政治和GERD。在新古典现实主义分析中,尼罗河政策的制定是精英偏好和威胁构建的模糊结果。在下层现实主义的分析中,埃塞俄比亚不顾埃及的反对,建造了GERD,这是一个长达十年的国家建设项目的高潮,它提高了治国能力。在建构主义现实主义分析中,尼罗河政治揭示了埃塞俄比亚不断演变的利益和观念约束,为自信的外交政策取向偏好的变化提供了信息。值得注意的是,与主流建构主义方法与国际政治中乐观结果的联系相比,通过建构主义现实主义分析尼罗河冲突,与其他方法相比,揭示了最悲观的和平解决前景。下层现实主义揭示了对这场冲突结果的最乐观的看法,因为埃塞俄比亚日益不稳定的当代政体对国家建设的限制带来了更大的合作激励。
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来源期刊
African Security
African Security POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
5.00%
发文量
15
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