{"title":"Do housing booms reduce fertility intentions? Evidence from the new two-child policy in China","authors":"Lina Meng , Lu Peng , Yinggang Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103920","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To ease pressure from the aging population, the Chinese government implemented a two-child policy for couples where either the husband or the wife is from a single-child family in 2014. Using this policy as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that housing booms inhibit the potential desire for more children. A one-standard-deviation increase in the housing price-income ratio decreases the probability of migrant couples’ intention to have a second child by 7.69%, with the effect being concentrated on renters. Housing booms affect couples’ desired fertility through negative income and high opportunity cost channels. (JEL code: R31, J13, J38).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48196,"journal":{"name":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166046223000558","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
To ease pressure from the aging population, the Chinese government implemented a two-child policy for couples where either the husband or the wife is from a single-child family in 2014. Using this policy as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that housing booms inhibit the potential desire for more children. A one-standard-deviation increase in the housing price-income ratio decreases the probability of migrant couples’ intention to have a second child by 7.69%, with the effect being concentrated on renters. Housing booms affect couples’ desired fertility through negative income and high opportunity cost channels. (JEL code: R31, J13, J38).
期刊介绍:
Regional Science and Urban Economics facilitates and encourages high-quality scholarship on important issues in regional and urban economics. It publishes significant contributions that are theoretical or empirical, positive or normative. It solicits original papers with a spatial dimension that can be of interest to economists. Empirical papers studying causal mechanisms are expected to propose a convincing identification strategy.