Pretty (and) invasive: The potential global distribution of Tithonia diversifolia under current and future climates

IF 1.3 4区 生物学 Q3 PLANT SCIENCES
Jessica M. Kriticos, D. Kriticos
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Abstract Mexican sunflower [Tithonia diversifolia (Hemsl.) A. Gray] is an invasive plant, native to the New World, and an exemplary conflict species. It has been planted widely for its ornamental and soil fertility enhancement qualities and has become a notorious environmental weed in introduced habitats. Here we use a bioclimatic niche model (CLIMEX) to estimate the potential global distribution of this invasive plant under historical climatic conditions. We apply a future climate scenario to the model to assess the sensitivity of the modeled potential geographic range to expected climate changes to 2050. Under current climatic conditions, there is potential for substantial range expansion into southern Europe with moderate climate suitability, and in southern China with highly suitable climates. Under the near-term future climate scenario, there is potential for poleward range expansion in the order of 200 to 500 km. In the tropics, climatic conditions are likely to become less favorable due to the increasing frequency of supra-optimal temperatures. In areas experiencing Mediterranean or warm temperate climates, the suitability for T. diversifolia appears set to increase as temperatures warm. There are vast areas in North America, Europe, and Asia (particularly China and India) that can support ephemeral populations of T. diversifolia. One means of enjoying the aesthetic benefits of T. diversifolia in gardens while avoiding the unwanted environmental impacts where it invades is to prevent its spread into areas climatically suitable for establishment and only allow it to be propagated in areas where it cannot persist naturally.
漂亮的(和)入侵性:在当前和未来的气候条件下,山雀的潜在全球分布
墨西哥向日葵[Tithonia diverfolia (Hemsl.)][A. Gray]是一种入侵植物,原产于新大陆,是一种典型的冲突物种。它具有观赏和增土肥力的优点,被广泛种植,已成为引种生境中臭名昭著的环境杂草。本文采用生物气候生态位模型(CLIMEX)估算了该入侵植物在历史气候条件下的潜在全球分布。我们将未来气候情景应用于模型,以评估模拟的潜在地理范围对2050年预期气候变化的敏感性。在目前的气候条件下,有可能向气候适宜的欧洲南部和气候适宜的中国南部大量扩展。在近期的未来气候情景下,极地范围有可能扩大200至500公里。在热带地区,由于超最佳温度的频率增加,气候条件可能变得不那么有利。在经历地中海或暖温带气候的地区,随着气温的升高,叶阔叶树的适宜性似乎会增加。在北美、欧洲和亚洲(特别是中国和印度)有大片地区可以支持短命的多元叶松种群。一种既能在花园中享受到多样叶蝉的美学优势,又能避免其入侵对环境造成不良影响的方法是,防止其扩散到气候适宜的地区,只允许其在无法自然生存的地区繁殖。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.20
自引率
9.10%
发文量
24
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Invasive Plant Science and Management (IPSM) is an online peer-reviewed journal focusing on fundamental and applied research on invasive plant biology, ecology, management, and restoration of invaded non-crop areas, and on other aspects relevant to invasive species, including educational activities and policy issues. Topics include the biology and ecology of invasive plants in rangeland, prairie, pasture, wildland, forestry, riparian, wetland, aquatic, recreational, rights-of-ways, and other non-crop (parks, preserves, natural areas) settings; genetics of invasive plants; social, ecological, and economic impacts of invasive plants and their management; design, efficacy, and integration of control tools; land restoration and rehabilitation; effects of management on soil, air, water, and wildlife; education, extension, and outreach methods and resources; technology and product reports; mapping and remote sensing, inventory and monitoring; technology transfer tools; case study reports; and regulatory issues.
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