Forecasting Tourism in the EU after the COVID-19 Crisis

IF 4.4 3区管理学 Q1 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM

Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research Pub Date : 2022-09-29 DOI:10.1177/10963480221125130

Ulrich Gunter, E. Smeral, Bozana Zekan

引用次数: 6

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has restricted both business and social life over the last two years. Stop-and-go policies enacted as containment measures have further impacted the global economy, and tourism in particular. Tourism demand shows only weak signs of a sustainable recovery. The medium-term outlook remains highly uncertain, and yet few studies have addressed the development of the tourism and leisure industries in the years ahead. In this context, we forecast demand in selected EU countries in terms of total expenditure on outbound travel (tourism imports) using a panel pooled Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) approach. Baseline and downside scenarios are elaborated to project demand for foreign travel until 2025.

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2019冠状病毒病危机后欧盟旅游业预测

过去两年，新冠肺炎疫情限制了商业和社交生活。作为遏制措施制定的走走停停政策进一步影响了全球经济，尤其是旅游业。旅游业需求只显示出可持续复苏的微弱迹象。中期前景仍然非常不确定，但很少有研究涉及未来几年旅游和休闲产业的发展。在这种情况下，我们使用面板汇总的全修正常最小二乘法（FMOLS）预测了选定欧盟国家的出境旅行（旅游进口）总支出需求。详细阐述了基线和下行情景，以预测2025年之前的国外旅行需求。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM-

CiteScore

10.10

自引率

9.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research (JHTR) is an international scholarly research journal that publishes high-quality, refereed articles that advance the knowledge base of the hospitality and tourism field. JHTR focuses on original research, both conceptual and empirical, that clearly contributes to the theoretical development of our field. The word contribution is key. Simple applications of theories from other disciplines to a hospitality or tourism context are not encouraged unless the authors clearly state why this context significantly advances theory or knowledge. JHTR encourages research based on a variety of methods, qualitative and quantitative.