Mapping the Changing Structure of Conflict Networks in North and West Africa

Abstract

ABSTRACT Contemporary conflict in North and West Africa is characterized by a high degree of social and political complexity. Hundreds of rebel groups and extremist organizations are involved in a shifting series of alliances and rivalries with regional governments and with each other. These changing relationships can be represented as a social network that provides both opportunities and constraints to violent organizations. To better address this complexity, this article models the temporal evolution of both opposition and cooperation networks using detailed information on nearly 40,000 events in North and West Africa from 1997–2020. Using a relational approach called Dynamic Social Network Analysis (DSNA), the article suggests that the increasing number of belligerents, increasing density of conflictual relationships, and polarization on powerful organizations capable of conducting extensive military operations make a peaceful resolution of the North and West African conflicts more elusive than ever.