How Great is the Current Danger to Democracy? Assessing the Risk With Historical Data

Abstract

Influential voices contend that democracy is in decline worldwide and threatened in the US. Using a variety of measures, I show that—while there has been some recent backsliding—the global proportion of democracies remains close to an all-time high. The current rate of deterioration is not historically unusual and is well explained by the lower income and unseasoned institutions of many new democracies swept upwards in the Third Wave. Historical data suggest the probability of democratic breakdown in the US is extremely low. Western governments are seen as threatened by weakening popular support for democracy and an erosion of elite norms. But systematic evidence for these claims is very limited. While eroding democratic quality in some countries is indeed a cause for concern, the fear of a global slide into autocracy appears premature.