The Future of Demand for Food Away from Home and Prepared Food: Cohort and Age Effects in Japan

Q3 Business, Management and Accounting

Journal of Agricultural and Food Industrial Organization Pub Date : 2018-07-07 DOI:10.1515/jafio-2017-0038

S. Fujioka, M. Fukushige

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract The demand for two composite goods, food away from home (FAFH) and prepared food (PF), are trending upward in Japan as Japanese society ages. This paper estimates the demand function of FAFH and PF. We adopt the almost ideal demand system and predict the effect on future demand from age and cohort changes. We find that the age effect decreases both while the cohort effect increases the share of FAFH but decreases that of PF. Over time, the demand for FAFH gradually decreases but remains stable. The demand for PF has been decreasing as of 2010 and more quickly than for FAFH. The reason is that both the age effect and the dynamic population trend decrease the demand for both goods, while the cohort effect slows the decrease in demand for FAFH but accelerates that for PF.

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对离家在外的食物和熟食的未来需求:日本的队列和年龄影响

随着日本社会的老龄化，人们对两种复合商品——离家食品(FAFH)和预制食品(PF)的需求呈上升趋势。本文估计了FAFH和PF的需求函数，采用近乎理想的需求系统，预测了年龄和队列变化对未来需求的影响。我们发现，年龄效应降低，而队列效应增加了FAFH的份额，但降低了PF的份额，随着时间的推移，FAFH的需求逐渐减少，但保持稳定。自2010年以来，对PF的需求一直在下降，而且比FAFH的需求下降得更快。原因是年龄效应和人口动态趋势都降低了对这两种商品的需求，而队列效应减缓了对FAFH的需求下降，而加速了对PF的需求下降。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Agricultural and Food Industrial Organization Business, Management and Accounting-Business, Management and Accounting (all)

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization (JAFIO) is a unique forum for empirical and theoretical research in industrial organization with a special focus on agricultural and food industries worldwide. As concentration, industrialization, and globalization continue to reshape horizontal and vertical relationships within the food supply chain, agricultural economists are revising both their views of traditional markets as well as their tools of analysis. At the core of this revision are strategic interactions between principals and agents, strategic interdependence between rival firms, and strategic trade policy between competing nations, all in a setting plagued by incomplete and/or imperfect information structures. Add to that biotechnology, electronic commerce, as well as the shift in focus from raw agricultural commodities to branded products, and the conclusion is that a "new" agricultural economics is needed for an increasingly complex "new" agriculture.