1981-2015年中国95°E以东区域性暴雨过程时、空分布特征

Q2 Engineering

Acta Meteorologica Sinica Pub Date : 2018-04-25 DOI:10.11676/QXXB2017.092

牛若芸, 刘凑华, 刘为一, 赵晓琳

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

基于1981-2015年中国逐日降水量加密观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料，采用主、客观相结合的方法，以天气过程为单元建立了中国95°E以东地区及其6个子区的区域性暴雨过程个例谱，进一步使用小波功率谱、9点二项式平滑及离差平方和聚类等方法剖析了中国95°E以东区域性暴雨过程的时、空分布统计特征。结果表明：（1）中国95°E以东区域性暴雨过程平均年总次数接近30次；其中，江淮流域是出现区域性暴雨过程最多的子区，平均为19次/a；其次为华南和西南地区东部，平均为10.5和5.8次/a；东北地区、华北和西北地区东部平均仅为1-3次/a。（2）中国95°E以东及各子区区域性暴雨过程次数的年及年代际变化主要表现为波动特征，各子区中江淮流域与中国95°E以东地区的年及年代际波动变化最为一致；华南与西南地区、东北地区与华北的波动变化互为显著的正相关。中国95°E以东及各子区区域性暴雨过程年总次数都表现出2-4 a的周期变化，此外，江淮流域、华南和西北地区东部还表现出6-10 a的周期变化，华北表现出13-17 a的周期变化。（3）中国95°E以东区域性暴雨过程总体呈夏季最多、冬季最少、春季多于秋季的分布特征，其中以7月出现次数最多。各子区中，江淮流域和西南地区东部区域性暴雨过程以6、7月最多，华南以5、6月最多；东北地区、华北、西北地区东部集中出现在7、8月。（4）中国95°E以东地区的极端区域性暴雨过程可划分为7种分布类型。第Ⅰ-Ⅳ型强降雨区从江南南部和华南呈阶梯状逐步北抬至黄淮和四川盆地东部一带，第Ⅴ-Ⅶ型除在东南沿海均有强降雨区外，第Ⅴ型在华南东部至江淮、第Ⅵ型在黄淮北部至东北地区中南部、第Ⅶ型在黄淮西部和华北中南部还分布有强降雨区。

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Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Regional rainstorm Process to the East of 95 ° E in China from 1981 to 2015

Based on the daily precipitation intensive observation data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in China from 1981 to 2015, the case spectra of regional rainstorm processes in the east of 95 ° E and its six sub regions in China were established by combining subjective and objective methods, and the statistical characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of regional rainstorm processes in the east of 95 ° E in China were further analyzed by using wavelet power spectrum, 9-point binomial smoothing and clustering of sum of squares of deviations. The results show that: (1) the average annual total number of regional rainstorm processes east of 95 ° E in China is close to 30; Among them, the Yangtze Huaihe River Basin is the sub region with the most regional rainstorm processes, with an average of 19 times/a; The second is the eastern part of South China and Southwest China, with an average of 10.5 and 5.8 times per year; The average frequency in Northeast China, North China, and the eastern part of Northwest China is only 1-3 times per year. (2) The annual and interdecadal variation of regional rainstorm process frequency in the east of China 95 ° E and its sub regions is mainly characterized by fluctuations. The annual and interdecadal fluctuations in the Yangtze Huaihe River basin in the sub regions are the most consistent with those in the east of China 95 ° E; The fluctuations in South China and Southwest China, as well as Northeast China and North China, are significantly positively correlated with each other. The annual total number of regional rainstorm processes east of 95 ° E in China and its sub regions all show a 2-4 year cycle. In addition, the Yangtze Huaihe River Basin, South China and the eastern part of Northwest China also show a 6-10 year cycle, while North China shows a 13-17 year cycle. (3) The regional rainstorm process east of 95 ° E in China is generally characterized by the distribution of the most in summer, the least in winter, and more in spring than in autumn, with the most occurrence in July. In each sub region, the regional rainstorm process in the Yangtze Huaihe River basin and the eastern part of southwest China is the most in June and July, and that in South China is the most in May and June; The eastern regions of Northeast China, North China, and Northwest China are concentrated in July and August. (4) The extreme regional rainstorm process in the area east of 95 ° E in China can be divided into 7 distribution types. The Type I-IV heavy rainfall areas gradually lift northward in a stepped pattern from the southern part of Jiangnan and South China to the eastern part of Huanghuai and Sichuan Basin. In addition to heavy rainfall areas along the southeast coast, Type V-VII is distributed from the eastern part of South China to Jianghuai, Type VI is distributed from the northern part of Huanghuai to the central and southern part of Northeast China, and Type VII is also distributed in the western part of Huanghuai and the central and southern part of North China.

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来源期刊

Acta Meteorologica Sinica 地学-气象与大气科学

CiteScore

1.46

自引率

0.00%

发文量

4250

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Journal of Meteorological Research publishes research that advances observation, modeling, and forecasting/prediction of weather and climate, as well as related topics in earth system sciences. Covers both basic and applied dynamics, physics, and chemistry of the atmosphere and its interfaces. A Springer co-sponsored journal focused on speed of submission and review, service, and integrity. Official journal of the Chinese Meteorological Society.