Temporal shifts in avian phenology across the circannual cycle in a rapidly changing climate: A global meta-analysis

Abstract

The alteration of the timing of biological events is one of the best documented effects of climate change, with overwhelming evidence across taxa. Many studies have investigated the phenology of consumers, especially birds. However, most of these studies have focused on specific phenophases, whereas a global analysis of avian phenological trends during recent climate change across different phases of the circannual cycle is still lacking. Here, we performed a comprehensive meta-analytic synthesis of the phenological responses (temporal shifts in days year⁻¹) of birds across different phenophases (prebreeding migration, breeding, and postbreeding migration) by summarizing more than 5500 time series from 684 species from five continents during 1811–2018. Our results confirm that avian taxa have advanced prebreeding migration and breeding by ~2–3 days per decade, whereas no significant temporal changes in the timing of postbreeding migration were documented. Advancement in the timing of prebreeding migration and breeding strongly depended on migratory behavior, with the advance being the weakest for long-distance migrants and the strongest for resident species. Diet generalists and primary consumers tended to advance prebreeding migration timing more than species with different dietary specializations. Increasing body size resulted in a larger advancement in the onset (but not in the mean date) of prebreeding migration and breeding, whereas phenological advances were larger in the northern than in the southern hemisphere. Our synthesis, covering most of the world, highlighted previously unappreciated patterns in avian phenological shifts over time, suggesting that specific life-history or ecological traits may drive different responses to climate change.