Easy come, easy go: Short-term land-use dynamics vis à vis regional economic downturns

IF 6.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI:10.1016/j.seps.2023.101603

Alessia D'Agata , Leonardo Salvatore Alaimo , Pavel Cudlín , Luca Salvati

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The present study postulates distinctive land-use dynamics along the economic cycle, and tests against diverging trends over time of urban and non-urban land-uses with characteristic economic potential. Short-term land-use changes over seven time windows encompassing the last three decades (1992–2020) were investigated in metropolitan Athens (Greece), a mono-centric region experiencing complex economic downturns. Based on diachronic land-use maps with homogeneous spatial resolution and nomenclature derived from ESA Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI), a change detection analysis was run considering mean patch size, distance from downtown, and specific entropy-based metrics of landscape diversification (Shannon-Wiener H’ diversity index and Pielou J evenness index). Results of a canonical correlation analysis document differential intensity and spatial direction of change during expansions and recessions associated with distinctive socio-demographic profiles. Metropolitan growth followed a radio-centric (land-saving) model during economic expansions with intense urbanization of fringe land. A more dispersed settlement model – reflecting urban sprawl – was associated with economic stagnations, involving land at progressively distant locations from downtown. Landscape diversification was higher under stagnations and lower during expansions.

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来得容易，去得容易：面对区域经济衰退的短期土地利用动态

本研究假设了经济周期中不同的土地利用动态，并测试了具有特征经济潜力的城市和非城市土地利用随时间的不同趋势。在过去30年(1992-2020年)的7个时间窗口内，研究了希腊大都市雅典的短期土地利用变化，这是一个经历复杂经济衰退的单中心地区。基于ESA气候变化计划(ESA- cci)提供的具有均匀空间分辨率和命名法的土地利用历时图，考虑平均斑块大小、距离市中心的距离和基于特定熵的景观多样性指标(Shannon-Wiener H’多样性指数和Pielou J均匀度指数)，进行了变化检测分析。典型相关分析的结果表明，经济扩张和经济衰退期间的差异强度和空间变化方向与不同的社会人口特征有关。在经济扩张期间，大都市的增长遵循以无线电为中心(节约土地)的模式，边缘土地城市化程度较高。一个更加分散的定居模式——反映了城市的蔓延——与经济停滞有关，涉及到离市中心越来越远的地方。景观多样性在停滞期较高，在扩张期较低。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Socio-economic Planning Sciences OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE-

CiteScore

9.40

自引率

13.10%

发文量

294

审稿时长

58 days

期刊介绍： Studies directed toward the more effective utilization of existing resources, e.g. mathematical programming models of health care delivery systems with relevance to more effective program design; systems analysis of fire outbreaks and its relevance to the location of fire stations; statistical analysis of the efficiency of a developing country economy or industry. Studies relating to the interaction of various segments of society and technology, e.g. the effects of government health policies on the utilization and design of hospital facilities; the relationship between housing density and the demands on public transportation or other service facilities: patterns and implications of urban development and air or water pollution. Studies devoted to the anticipations of and response to future needs for social, health and other human services, e.g. the relationship between industrial growth and the development of educational resources in affected areas; investigation of future demands for material and child health resources in a developing country; design of effective recycling in an urban setting.