Prediction of Adult Criminal Careers from Early Delinquency Offense Characteristics in the 1958 Philadelphia Birth Cohort

Abstract

This paper uses the official juvenile offenses among the delinquent boys in the 1958 Philadelphia Birth Cohort to investigate the nature of delinquency conduct, offense-by-offense, and its relationship to adult crime status. Although it is convenient to think of an offender’s delinquency career as a whole, such a career actually consists of one or more specific offenses, and offense conduct can be worth studying in its own right. Thus, it is necessary to determine whether the timing, type, severity, court disposition, and so on of these juvenile offenses can be used to predict adult career pathways. An extensive review of the literature revealed that investigations of early offense conduct and its connection to adult crime are exceedingly scarce. This study indicates as follows: First, the way a delinquent begins his criminal career is predictive of the adult trajectory that will be followed. Second, aspects of the first few offenses do influence whether delinquents continue committing crimes as an adult. The strongest predictor of adult crime status was juvenile court dispositions.