A multifactorial model for predicting severe course and organ and systems damage in Lyme borreliosis in children

Abstract

Lyme disease (tick-borne borreliosis, Lyme borreliosis - LB) is a multisystem zoonotic disease transmitted by the bite of infected ticks. Purpose - to develop a mathematical model for predicting the risk of severity of the course (PRSC) of LB by the risk factor for the development of disseminated LB in children who have had a tick attack. Materials and methods. To build a model for PRSC of LB using multivariate regression analysis, 121 children with LB aged 13±3 years (from 1 to 18 years) were examined, including 51 boys and 70 girls. Groups of patients: 78 children with erythema migrans, 16 - with Lyme arthritis, 27 - with nervous system lesions. The quality of the prognostic model was checked by the Neigelkerk criterion (R2), and the acceptability of the model was assessed using ANOVA analysis of variance. Serological examination of patients bitten by ticks was performed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. To detect immunoglobulins of classes M (IgM) and G (IgG) to B. burgdorferi s.l. complex, test systems from Euroimmun AG (Germany) were used. IgM antibodies were determined by the test system Anti-Borrelia burgdorferi ELISA, IgG - by Anti-Borrelia plus VIsE ELIS. Blood samples with intermediate and positive results of the first stage of work were examined by immune blotting: IgM antibodies were detected using the system Anti-Borrelia EUROLINE Borrelia RN-AT (IgM), and IgG antibodies - Anti-Borrelia EUROLINE RN-AT. Results. The method of multivariate regression analysis for predicting the severe course and damage to organs and systems in children with LB, taking into account the factors and variants of the disease itself, allows to develop a mathematical model of PRSC of LB and to improve the effectiveness of treatment. Thus, all prerequisites have been created for high-quality preventive measures and reducing the risk of severe pulmonary disease. The initial data for predicting the severity of pulmonary disease were 28 factors. According to the results of the regression analysis, 24 factors were included in the model for predicting the severity of the course of pulmonary disease. Conclusions. For the first time, a multivariate regression model for PRSC of LB for pulmonary fibrosis in children was built. The weighting coefficients of each of the factors of the onset and progression of LB were taken into account: 0-10 points indicate the development of a localized stage (primary effect stage), while 11 or more points indicate a disseminated (generalized) stage. The results of the study make it possible to further develop standardized scales of the severity of LB and possible organ and system damage. The research was carried out in accordance with the principles of the Helsinki Declaration. The study protocol was approved by the Local Ethics Committee of the participating institution. The informed consent of the patient was obtained for conducting the studies. No conflict of interests was declared by the authors.