Ciudad, complejidad y cambio: fundamentos para el análisis de la incertidumbre en sistemas urbanos

Abstract

Cities are complex systems in constant evolution, whose planning faces increasingly unpredictable futures. Understanding the city as a complex self-organizing system, and based on information theory and thermodynamic theory of non-equilibrium and irreversibility, it is possible to establish the exchange of information that occurs between the urban system and the surrounding environment. This paper shows that facing an abrupt rise in uncertainty, the city can increase its complexity [1], its ability to anticipate the environment [2], its control over the environment [3], can adequately combine the previous strategies [4] or change its identity [5]. The methodology used in this article juxtaposes these predetermined conceptual premises five case studies of cities affected by social conflicts, natural disasters, and wars. The research results show the applicability of the coupling between the urban system and its environment and exemplify how the five strategies have intensely transformed the urban morphology and topology of cities such as Amsterdam, Nicosia, Barcelona, and Beirut. The overall conclusion of the article points out that memory is a critical factor in defining new urban futures.