Economic evolution and uncertainty: Transitions and structural changes

IF 1.1 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS
Silvia London, F. Tohmé
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

Economic evolution is said to occur when economic structures change. That is, when the institutional and/or technological rules of the society are replaced by new ones. As with evolutionary phenomena in other fields it is rather impossible to predict such changes. In this paper we present a simple model of evolutionary changes caused by uncertainty about the possible future states of the economy. Agents faced with uncertainty behave in such a way as to either lead the economy to another state or adjust themselves to the newly known environment. In either case, the change involves the modification of one or more fundamental parameters of the economy. Such modification is what we call an evolutionary change. We prove an impossibility result, stating that there is no way of coordinating those adjustments as to make true any given forecast. Moreover, we show that uncertainty about the future is a real source of novelty.
经济演变与不确定性:转型与结构变化
据说,当经济结构发生变化时,就会发生经济进化。也就是说,当社会的制度和/或技术规则被新的规则所取代时。与其他领域的进化现象一样,预测这种变化是相当不可能的。在本文中,我们提出了一个简单的演化变化模型,该模型是由经济可能的未来状态的不确定性引起的。面对不确定性的行为主体要么将经济引向另一种状态,要么调整自己以适应新的已知环境。在任何一种情况下,这种变化都涉及对经济的一个或多个基本参数的修改。这种改变就是我们所说的进化变化。我们证明了一个不可能的结果,即没有办法协调这些调整来实现任何给定的预测。此外,我们还表明,未来的不确定性是新奇事物的真正来源。
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来源期刊
Journal of Dynamics and Games
Journal of Dynamics and Games MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS-
CiteScore
2.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
26
期刊介绍: The Journal of Dynamics and Games (JDG) is a pure and applied mathematical journal that publishes high quality peer-review and expository papers in all research areas of expertise of its editors. The main focus of JDG is in the interface of Dynamical Systems and Game Theory.
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