Joint probability distribution of air temperature and global solar radiation for outdoor design conditions based on copula approach

IF 1.5 4区 工程技术 Q3 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY
Zhichao Jiao, K. Emura
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

In the common method of compiling outdoor design conditions by annual cumulative frequency of occurrence, the probability of simultaneous occurrence of the selected meteorological elements is not considered, which may lead to an overestimation of air-conditioning equipment capacity design. This paper aims at developing a novel approach for producing the outdoor design conditions, taking into consideration the dependency between the air temperature and global solar radiation, which have a strong influence on the HVAC capacity design. These two meteorological elements are analyzed for specific simultaneous occurrence probability based on the joint distribution. For this purpose, the copula approach which can describe the dependence between these two meteorological elements is used for modeling the joint distribution function. We investigated copula family selection for air temperature and global solar radiation at each hour of hourly weather data for 10 years from 2001 to 2010 in Osaka, Japan. The Joe-Frank copula has the best fitting results for the dependence between the air temperature and global solar radiation. According to the comparison of original exceeding probability and simultaneous occurrence probability, the results show that the design conditions based on the common method can significantly exceed that of the simultaneous occurrence probability method. Practical Application: Outdoor design conditions are used in the building design stage to estimate building performance and select the appropriate air conditioning equipment capacity. Excessive air-conditioning capacity may lead to a large amount of unnecessary energy wastage. Insufficient capacity may lead to not meeting the desired indoor environment conditions of utilization in extreme weather conditions, especially for large office buildings. Therefore, this paper provides a new approach to generate more realistic meteorological conditions for air-conditioning design to improve building energy efficiency.
基于copula方法的室外设计条件下气温和全球太阳辐射的联合概率分布
在按年累计发生频率编制室外设计条件的常用方法中,未考虑所选气象要素同时发生的概率,可能导致对空调设备容量设计的高估。本文旨在开发一种新的方法来产生室外设计条件,考虑空气温度和太阳总辐射之间的依赖关系,这对暖通空调容量设计有很大的影响。根据联合分布,分析了这两种气象要素同时发生的具体概率。为此,采用能够描述这两个气象要素之间的相关性的copula方法对联合分布函数进行建模。研究了2001 - 2010年10年日本大阪地区每小时天气数据的气温和全球太阳辐射的copula家族选择。Joe-Frank copula对气温与太阳总辐射的相关性拟合结果最好。通过对原始超过概率和同时发生概率的比较,结果表明,基于普通方法的设计条件可以显著超过同时发生概率方法的设计条件。实际应用:在建筑设计阶段,利用室外设计条件估算建筑性能,选择合适的空调设备容量。空调容量过大可能导致大量不必要的能源浪费。在极端天气条件下,容量不足可能导致室内环境条件达不到预期的使用效果,尤其是大型写字楼。因此,本文为空调设计提供了一种产生更真实气象条件以提高建筑能效的新途径。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Building Services Engineering Research & Technology
Building Services Engineering Research & Technology 工程技术-结构与建筑技术
CiteScore
4.30
自引率
5.90%
发文量
38
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Building Services Engineering Research & Technology is one of the foremost, international peer reviewed journals that publishes the highest quality original research relevant to today’s Built Environment. Published in conjunction with CIBSE, this impressive journal reports on the latest research providing you with an invaluable guide to recent developments in the field.
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