Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment under future climate and land cover changes: A case study from southwest China

IF 8.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geoscience frontiers Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI:10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101542

Zizheng Guo , Joaquin Vicente Ferrer , Marcel Hürlimann , Vicente Medina , Carol Puig-Polo , Kunlong Yin , Da Huang

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引用次数: 18

Abstract

There is no doubt that land cover and climate changes have consequences on landslide activity, but it is still an open issue to assess and quantify their impacts. Wanzhou County in southwest China was selected as the test area to study rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility under the future changes of land use and land cover (LULC) and climate. We used a high-resolution meteorological precipitation dataset and frequency distribution model to analyse the present extreme and antecedent rainfall conditions related to landslide activity. The future climate change factors were obtained from a 4-member multi-model ensemble that was derived from statistically downscaled regional climate simulations. The future LULC maps were simulated by the land change modeller (LCM) integrated into IDRISI Selva software. A total of six scenarios were defined by considering the rainfall (antecedent conditions and extreme events) and LULC changes towards two time periods (mid and late XXI century). A physically-based model was used to assess landslide susceptibility under these different scenarios. The results showed that the magnitude of both antecedent effective recharge and event rainfall in the region will evidently increase in the future. Under the scenario with a return period of 100 years, the antecedent rainfall in summer will increase by up to 63% whereas the event rainfall will increase by up to 54% for the late 21st century. The most considerable changes of LULC will be the increase of forest cover and the decrease of farming land. The magnitude of this change can reach + 22.1% (forest) and –9.2% (farmland) from 2010 until 2100, respectively. We found that the negative impact of climate change on landslide susceptibility is greater than the stabilizing effect of LULC change, leading to an over decrease in stability over the study area. This is one of the first studies across Asia to assess and quantify changes of regional landslide susceptibility under scenarios driven by LULC and climate change. Our results aim to guide land use planning and climate change mitigation considerations to reduce landslide risk.

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未来气候和土地覆盖变化下浅层滑坡易发性评价——以中国西南地区为例

毫无疑问，土地覆盖和气候变化对滑坡活动有影响，但评估和量化其影响仍是一个悬而未决的问题。以中国西南部万州县为试验区，研究了未来土地利用/土地覆盖(LULC)和气候变化下降雨诱发浅层滑坡易感性。我们使用高分辨率气象降水数据集和频率分布模型来分析与滑坡活动相关的当前极端和先前降雨条件。未来气候变化因子是由统计上缩小尺度的区域气候模拟得到的4元多模式集合得到的。利用IDRISI Selva软件集成的土地变化模型(LCM)对未来的LULC地图进行模拟。通过考虑降雨(前期条件和极端事件)和LULC在两个时间段(21世纪中期和后期)的变化，共定义了6种情景。采用基于物理的模型来评估这些不同情景下的滑坡易感性。结果表明，未来该地区的前期有效补给量和事件降雨量都将明显增加。在回归周期为100年的情景下，21世纪后期夏季前期降水将增加63%，而事件降水将增加54%。最显著的变化是森林覆盖的增加和耕地的减少。从2010年到2100年，这一变化幅度分别达到+ 22.1%(森林)和-9.2%(农田)。研究发现，气候变化对滑坡敏感性的负面影响大于LULC变化的稳定作用，导致研究区稳定性过度降低。这是亚洲地区首次评估和量化在LULC和气候变化驱动下区域滑坡易感性变化的研究之一。我们的研究结果旨在指导土地利用规划和减缓气候变化的考虑，以减少滑坡风险。

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来源期刊

Geoscience frontiers Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences

CiteScore

17.80

自引率

3.40%

发文量

147

审稿时长

35 days

期刊介绍： Geoscience Frontiers (GSF) is the Journal of China University of Geosciences (Beijing) and Peking University. It publishes peer-reviewed research articles and reviews in interdisciplinary fields of Earth and Planetary Sciences. GSF covers various research areas including petrology and geochemistry, lithospheric architecture and mantle dynamics, global tectonics, economic geology and fuel exploration, geophysics, stratigraphy and paleontology, environmental and engineering geology, astrogeology, and the nexus of resources-energy-emissions-climate under Sustainable Development Goals. The journal aims to bridge innovative, provocative, and challenging concepts and models in these fields, providing insights on correlations and evolution.