Consequences of a Shortage and Rationing: Evidence from a Pediatric Vaccine

Abstract

Shortages and rationing are common in health care, yet we know little about the consequences. We examine an 18-month shortage of the pediatric Haemophilus Influenzae Type B (Hib) vaccine. Using insurance claims data and variation in shortage exposure across birth cohorts, we find that the shortage reduced uptake of high-value primary doses by 4 percentage points and low-value booster doses by 26 percentage points. This suggests providers largely complied with rationing recommendations. In the long-run, catch-up vaccination occurred but was incomplete: shortage-exposed cohorts were 4 percentage points less likely to have received the ir booster dose years later. We also find that the shortage and rationing caused provider switches, extra provider visits, and negative spillovers to other care.