U.S. Federal Reserve Policies can cause Political instability by raising bread prices*

IF 5.6 1区农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Food Security Pub Date : 2022-06-10 DOI:10.1007/s12571-022-01300-0

Ore Koren, W. Kindred Winecoff

引用次数: 2

Abstract

This note argues that the monetary policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve impact food prices globally and can – by extension – affect the incidence of food riots and broader social conflict. We additionally claim that these impacts are especially likely in the case of commodities with more price-inelastic demand, staple cereals in particular, but less likely in the case of food commodities with more price-elastic demand, such as meats and oil. Using mediation analysis, we find empirical support for the impact of changes to US dollar supply on food riots from 2000–2011. We also find that this relationship extends to broader measures of social conflict (including protests, riots, strikes, etc.). We conclude with a cautionary note about how to interpret these results.

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美国联邦储备委员会的政策可能会提高面包价格，从而引发政治不稳定*

本文认为，美联储的货币政策影响着全球的食品价格，进而可能影响粮食骚乱和更广泛的社会冲突的发生。我们还声称，这些影响在需求价格弹性较大的商品(尤其是主食谷物)的情况下尤其可能出现，但在需求价格弹性较大的食品商品(如肉类和石油)的情况下不太可能出现。通过中介分析，我们发现2000-2011年美元供给变化对粮食骚乱影响的实证支持。我们还发现，这种关系延伸到更广泛的社会冲突衡量标准(包括抗议、骚乱、罢工等)。最后，我们对如何解释这些结果提出警告。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Food Security FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY-

CiteScore

14.00

自引率

6.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Food Security is a wide audience, interdisciplinary, international journal dedicated to the procurement, access (economic and physical), and quality of food, in all its dimensions. Scales range from the individual to communities, and to the world food system. We strive to publish high-quality scientific articles, where quality includes, but is not limited to, the quality and clarity of text, and the validity of methods and approaches. Food Security is the initiative of a distinguished international group of scientists from different disciplines who hold a deep concern for the challenge of global food security, together with a vision of the power of shared knowledge as a means of meeting that challenge. To address the challenge of global food security, the journal seeks to address the constraints - physical, biological and socio-economic - which not only limit food production but also the ability of people to access a healthy diet. From this perspective, the journal covers the following areas: Global food needs: the mismatch between population and the ability to provide adequate nutrition Global food potential and global food production Natural constraints to satisfying global food needs: § Climate, climate variability, and climate change § Desertification and flooding § Natural disasters § Soils, soil quality and threats to soils, edaphic and other abiotic constraints to production § Biotic constraints to production, pathogens, pests, and weeds in their effects on sustainable production The sociological contexts of food production, access, quality, and consumption. Nutrition, food quality and food safety. Socio-political factors that impinge on the ability to satisfy global food needs: § Land, agricultural and food policy § International relations and trade § Access to food § Financial policy § Wars and ethnic unrest Research policies and priorities to ensure food security in its various dimensions.