Evaluating gender differences in injury severities of non-helmet wearing motorcyclists: Accommodating temporal shifts and unobserved heterogeneity

IF 12.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Chenzhu Wang , Muhammad Ijaz , Fei Chen , Yunlong Zhang , Jianchuan Cheng , Muhammad Zahid
{"title":"Evaluating gender differences in injury severities of non-helmet wearing motorcyclists: Accommodating temporal shifts and unobserved heterogeneity","authors":"Chenzhu Wang ,&nbsp;Muhammad Ijaz ,&nbsp;Fei Chen ,&nbsp;Yunlong Zhang ,&nbsp;Jianchuan Cheng ,&nbsp;Muhammad Zahid","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2022.100249","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>With rapid growth in motorcycle use and relatively low helmet-wearing usage rates, injuries and fatalities resulting from motorcycle crashes in Pakistan are a critical concern. To investigate possible temporal instability and differences in the factors that determine resulting injury severities between male and female non-helmet wearing motorcyclists, this study estimated male and female injury severity models using a random parameter logit approach with heterogeneity in means and variances. Motorcycle crash data between 2017 and 2019 from Rawalpindi, Pakistan, were used for the model estimation. With four possible crash injury severity outcomes (injury, minor injury, severe injury, and fatal injury), a wide variety of explanatory variables were considered, including the characteristics of riders, vehicles, roadways, environments, crashes, and temporal considerations. Temporal shifts in the effects of explanatory variables were confirmed using a series of likelihood ratio tests. While the effects of several explanatory variables are relatively temporally stable, those of most variables vary considerably across the years. In addition, out-of-sample simulations underscore the temporal shifts from year to year and the differences between male and female motorcyclist-injury severity. The findings suggest that factors such as effective enforcement countermeasures and relevant educational campaigns can be implemented to reduce injury severity. The statistically significant differences between male and female non-helmeted injury severity models underscore the importance of policies that separately target male and female motorcycle rider safety.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"36 ","pages":"Article 100249"},"PeriodicalIF":12.5000,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"15","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665722000380","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15

Abstract

With rapid growth in motorcycle use and relatively low helmet-wearing usage rates, injuries and fatalities resulting from motorcycle crashes in Pakistan are a critical concern. To investigate possible temporal instability and differences in the factors that determine resulting injury severities between male and female non-helmet wearing motorcyclists, this study estimated male and female injury severity models using a random parameter logit approach with heterogeneity in means and variances. Motorcycle crash data between 2017 and 2019 from Rawalpindi, Pakistan, were used for the model estimation. With four possible crash injury severity outcomes (injury, minor injury, severe injury, and fatal injury), a wide variety of explanatory variables were considered, including the characteristics of riders, vehicles, roadways, environments, crashes, and temporal considerations. Temporal shifts in the effects of explanatory variables were confirmed using a series of likelihood ratio tests. While the effects of several explanatory variables are relatively temporally stable, those of most variables vary considerably across the years. In addition, out-of-sample simulations underscore the temporal shifts from year to year and the differences between male and female motorcyclist-injury severity. The findings suggest that factors such as effective enforcement countermeasures and relevant educational campaigns can be implemented to reduce injury severity. The statistically significant differences between male and female non-helmeted injury severity models underscore the importance of policies that separately target male and female motorcycle rider safety.

评估不戴头盔摩托车手损伤严重程度的性别差异:适应时间变化和未观察到的异质性
由于摩托车使用迅速增长和头盔使用率相对较低,巴基斯坦摩托车碰撞造成的伤害和死亡是一个严重问题。为了研究男性和女性不戴头盔的摩托车手之间可能存在的时间不稳定性和决定损伤严重程度的因素差异,本研究使用随机参数logit方法估计了男性和女性损伤严重程度模型,其均值和方差均存在异质性。模型估计使用了2017年至2019年巴基斯坦拉瓦尔品第的摩托车事故数据。有四种可能的碰撞损伤严重程度结果(伤害、轻伤、重伤和致命伤害),考虑了各种各样的解释变量,包括骑手、车辆、道路、环境、碰撞和时间因素的特征。解释变量影响的时间变化通过一系列似然比检验得到证实。虽然一些解释变量的影响在时间上是相对稳定的,但大多数变量的影响在不同年份变化很大。此外,样本外模拟强调了每年的时间变化以及男性和女性摩托车手受伤严重程度的差异。研究结果表明,有效的执法措施和相关的教育活动可以降低伤害的严重程度。男性和女性非头盔伤害严重程度模型之间的统计显着差异强调了分别针对男性和女性摩托车骑手安全的政策的重要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
CiteScore
22.10
自引率
34.10%
发文量
35
审稿时长
24 days
期刊介绍: Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信