Modelling of Climate Change’s Impact on Prunus armeniaca L.’s Flowering Time

Abstract

This study presents the results of the development of numerical models for predicting the timing of apricot flowering, including using experimental data on the emergence of plants from a state of deep dormancy. The best results of approximation of the process of accumulation of the necessary cooling in the autumn–winter period were obtained using the sigmoidal function. Models that take into account the combined effect of temperature and photoperiod on the processes of spring development showed a high accuracy of the process of accumulation of thermal units. Based on the results of testing, two models were selected with an accuracy of 3.0 days for the start of flowering and the absence of a systematic bias, which can be considered a good quality assessment These models describe well the interannual variability of apricot flowering dates and can be used to predict these dates. The discrepancy is no more than 2–4 days in 87–89% of cases. Estimates of the timing of flowering and the end of deep dormancy are very important for increasing the profitability of fruit production in the South of Russia without incurring additional costs, by minimizing the risks associated with irrational crop placement and the selection of varieties without taking into account the specifics of climate change. When constructing a system of protective measures and dates of treatments, it is also necessary to take into account the calendar dates of the shift in the development of plants.