Differences between day and night pedestrian-injury severities: Accounting for temporal and unobserved effects in prediction

IF 12.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Asim Alogaili , Fred Mannering
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引用次数: 40

Abstract

This study explores the differences between day and night pedestrian-injury severities in vehicle–pedestrian crashes over a five-year period using data from the state of Kansas. Separate statistical models (random parameters logit models with possible heterogeneity in the means and variances of the random parameters) were estimated for day and night crashes to examine different pedestrian injury severity outcomes (no visible injury, moderate injury, and severe injury). Likelihood ratio tests were conducted to explore the temporal stability of the model estimations over different times of day and years. Many variables affecting injury severities were considered in model estimation including time and location of accidents, in addition to information on environmental, roadway, crash, vehicle, driver, and pedestrian characteristics. The findings indicate that the factors affecting pedestrian injury severities did change over time but that there is a clear day-night difference in the resulting injury severities of pedestrians, with nighttime crashes consistently resulting in more severe injuries overtime. This suggests policies and technologies that seek to essentially replicate daytime conditions (improved illumination, infrared pedestrian detection in vehicles, etc.) in nighttime conditions could have considerable safety benefits. Using the estimated random parameters models, extensive out-of-sample prediction simulations are used to provide estimates of the potential benefits of such nighttime mitigation policies and technologies, as well as how daytime/nighttime pedestrian injury severity probabilities have been changing over time.

白天和夜间行人伤害严重程度的差异:在预测中考虑时间和未观察到的影响
这项研究利用来自堪萨斯州的数据,探讨了五年间车辆与行人碰撞中白天和夜间行人受伤严重程度的差异。对白天和夜间碰撞分别估计了统计模型(随机参数logit模型,随机参数的均值和方差可能存在异质性),以检查不同的行人损伤严重程度结果(无可见损伤、中度损伤和重度损伤)。进行了似然比检验,以探索模型估计在一天和年份的不同时间的时间稳定性。在模型估计中考虑了许多影响伤害严重程度的变量,包括事故发生的时间和地点,以及环境、道路、碰撞、车辆、驾驶员和行人特征等信息。研究结果表明,影响行人受伤严重程度的因素确实会随着时间的推移而变化,但造成的行人受伤严重程度存在明显的昼夜差异,夜间碰撞持续导致更严重的伤害。这表明,寻求在夜间条件下复制白天条件(改善照明,车辆红外行人检测等)的政策和技术可能具有相当大的安全效益。利用估计的随机参数模型,广泛的样本外预测模拟用于估计此类夜间缓解政策和技术的潜在效益,以及白天/夜间行人受伤严重程度概率如何随时间变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
22.10
自引率
34.10%
发文量
35
审稿时长
24 days
期刊介绍: Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.
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