Lessons from long-run (1975–2017) structural change in Colombia's coffee production

Abstract

Although coffee is still an important agricultural commodity in Colombia, the coffee share of GDP has significantly declined over the past 40 years. Controlling for changes in relative prices, factor endowments, and technological change, we analyze the coffee share decline in conjunction with other agricultural output by applying a Vector Error Correction model. The results indicate that while market liberalization policies contributed to the declining coffee share of GDP, the decline was partly offset by the end of coffee export quotas. Our results support policies in favor of assistance for farmers to compete in international markets.