Militære faktorer som tyder på at krigen er rett rundt hjørnet

Abstract

Artikkelen drøfter hvordan analyse av militære disposisjoner kan brukes for å vurdere om et angrep vil komme. Artikkelen viser også hvordan enkel etterretningsmetodikk kan brukes i slike situasjoner. Abstract in EnglishMilitary Factors That Suggest War is Right Around the CornerWhen and how do military deployments, dispositions and preparations signal that an attack is actually coming? The article discusses such questions using intelligence methodologies. Using the Russian decision to attack Ukraine in February 2022, the article argues that knowledge of how the attacker understand the situation is crucial. Thus, a more or less objective third-party estimate of the situation on the ground may provide understanding of how a war may develop, but it may not be sufficient to understand if an aggressor will actually attack.