The persistent countervailing consequences of urbanization: A longitudinal study of homicide rates

IF 2 3区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

European Journal of Criminology Pub Date : 2022-05-09 DOI:10.1177/14773708221098990

M. Clement, Nathan W. Pino, Jarrett Blaustein

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Quantitative criminologists often use temporally lagged variables to estimate the structural forces contributing to variation in crime rates. We elucidate the relevance of temporal lags for cross-national research by looking specifically at the lagged longitudinal relationship between urbanization and homicide rates. Using cross-national time-series data for (n = 83) nations, we run a series of 10 separate panel models, in which we incrementally increase the time lag between the dependent variable homicide rate and two independent measures of urbanization, controlling for changes in GDP and age-structure as well as fixed effects for time and unit. Results from these panel models confirm that the two measures of urbanization are oppositely associated with homicide rates. Moreover, while the magnitudes of the associations for both predictors decline as lag time increases, they continue to be statistically significant. These results provide evidence that urbanization has countervailing and persistent consequences for homicide rates that ripple through time. These results also lead us to conclude that a more systematic approach to lag time in longitudinal research is needed.

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城市化的持续抵消后果：谋杀率的纵向研究

定量犯罪学家经常使用时间滞后变量来估计导致犯罪率变化的结构性力量。我们通过具体观察城市化与凶杀率之间的滞后纵向关系，阐明了时间滞后与跨国研究的相关性。使用（n）的跨国时间序列数据 = 83）个国家，我们运行了一系列10个独立的面板模型，在这些模型中，我们逐步增加了因变量谋杀率和两个独立的城市化指标之间的时滞，控制了GDP和年龄结构的变化，以及时间和单位的固定影响。这些面板模型的结果证实，城市化的两个指标与凶杀率有着相反的关联。此外，尽管两个预测因子的关联程度随着滞后时间的增加而下降，但它们仍然具有统计学意义。这些结果提供了证据，证明城市化对杀人率产生了抵消和持续的影响，杀人率会随着时间的推移而波动。这些结果也使我们得出结论，需要一种更系统的方法来解决纵向研究中的滞后时间。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

European Journal of Criminology CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY-

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

5.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The European Journal of Criminology is a refereed journal published by SAGE publications and the European Society of Criminology. It provides a forum for research and scholarship on crime and criminal justice institutions. The journal published high quality articles using varied approaches, including discussion of theory, analysis of quantitative data, comparative studies, systematic evaluation of interventions, and study of institutions of political process. The journal also covers analysis of policy, but not description of policy developments. Priority is given to articles that are relevant to the wider Europe (within and beyond the EU) although findings may be drawn from other parts of the world.