Correlation-Regression Analysis of Innovation Factor Influence on GDP Growth

Abstract

Introduction. In order to improve innovation policy given a clear definition of the correlation between innovation-driven development indicators and GDP, it is necessary to critically assess the influence of the innovation factor on the country’s economic growth and an increase in its competitiveness.Problem Statement. Modern conditions of the global economic system development require the constant adjustment and improvement of innovation strategies given new civilizational challenges, as well as the intensification of R&D activities of national economies. This highlighted the problem of scholarly research on the influence of innovation andthe determination of correlation between indicators of innovation-driven development and GDP.Purpose. The research is based on the proposed explanatory model built with the use of correlation-regression analysis, which demonstrates the influence of the innovation factor on GDP growth. The article contains forecast estimates of GDP in terms of years, depending on changes in innovation-driven development indicators based on multiple regression analysis, as well as practical recommendations for increasing the innovation capacity of Ukraine.Material and Methods. To identify the impact of innovation on GDP growth, a mathematical model has beenbuilt with the use of correlation-regression analysis; to demonstrate and visualize the results of the study we haveused tabular and graphical methods.Results. To improve the strategy of innovation-driven development of Ukraine, an economic-mathematical model based on multiple regression analysis has been developed. It demonstrates the influence of the innovation factoron changes in GDP. This model helps to understand the functioning and development of innovation processes, toreveal the causal and functional relationships of individual indicators of innovation-driven economic development,as well as to determine the required level of innovation factor by maximizing the hidden innovation capacity.Conclusions. The basic of the strategic course, its basic principle should be the implementation of governmentpolicy aiming at choosing an innovation strategy of structural transformation of Ukraine as a competitive hightech state. This strategy requires the use of domestic R&D potential and makes its contribution to the innovationdriven development of the national economy a crucial factor.